Scenario Planning
A Tool for Conservation in an Uncertain World
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 23375656 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Glen D Peterson (0000-0003-0173-0112, University of Wisconsin–Madison), Garry D Peterson, Graeme S Cummings (0000-0002-3678-1326, University of Florida), Graeme S Cumming, R Carpenter (0000-0001-8097-8700, University of Wisconsin–Madison), Stephen R Carpenter |
| Year | 2003 |
| Volume | 17 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 358-366 |
| Publication date | 2003-04-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Conservation Biology (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0888-8892 • E-ISSN: 1523-1739 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1046/j.1523-1739.2003.01491.x |
| OpenAlex | W2023339029 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 268 |
| References cited | 22 |
Conservation decisions about how, when, and where to act are typically based on our expectations for the future. When the world is highly unpredictable and we are working from a limited range of expectations, however, our expectations will frequently be proved wrong. Scenario planning offers a framework for developing more resilient conservation policies when faced with uncontrollable, irreducible uncertainty. A scenario in this context is an account of a plausible future. Scenario planning consists of using a few contrasting scenarios to explore the uncertainty surrounding the future consequences of a decision. Ideally, scenarios should be constructed by a diverse group of people for a single, stated purpose. Scenario planning can incorporate a variety of quantitative and qualitative information in the decision‐making process. Often, consideration of this diverse information in a systemic way leads to better decisions. Furthermore, the participation of a diverse group of people in a systemic process of collecting, discussing, and analyzing scenarios builds shared understanding. The robustness provided by the consideration of multiple possible futures has served several groups well; we present examples from business, government, and conservation planning that illustrate the value of scenario planning. For conservation, major benefits of using scenario planning are ( 1 ) increased understanding of key uncertainties, ( 2 ) incorporation of alternative perspectives into conservation planning, and ( 3 ) greater resilience of decisions to surprise.
Business · Context (archaeology) · Economics · Environmental planning · Environmental resource management · Futures contract · Geography · Management science · Process (computing) · Process management · Risk analysis (engineering) · Robustness (evolution) · Scenario analysis · Scenario planning · Surprise · Variety (cybernetics) · Computer Science · Economic and Environmental Valuation · Environmental Conservation and Management · Land Use and Ecosystem Services · Marketing · Psychology
Coupling effects assessment and multi-scenario simulation of ecosystem services and rural residents' well-being
Active transformative pathways for local agri-food systems
Climate and Culture
Deliberations on the Life Sciences
How stable are visions for protected area management? Stakeholder perspectives before and during a pandemic
Fostering ocean empathy through future scenarios
A scenario-based optimization frame to adjust current strategy for population- economy-resource-environment harmony in an urban agglomeration, China
Managing social-ecological systems under uncertainty
Widening the Scope of Scenario Planning in Small Communities
Recovery planning in a dynamic system
Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research
A Handful of Heuristics and Some Propositions for Understanding Resilience in Social-Ecological Systems
Methods for Developing Multiscale Participatory Scenarios
Using Participatory Scenarios to Stimulate Social Learning for Collaborative Sustainable Development
The State of the System and Steps Toward Resilience of Disturbance-dependent Oak Forests
Resilience assessment
Learning about social-ecological trade-offs
Strategies for managing complex social-ecological systems in the face of uncertainty
Can scenario-planning support community-based natural resource management? Experiences from three countries in Latin America
Forest management under uncertainty
From local scenarios to national maps
Integrating Collaboration, Adaptive Management, and Scenario-Planning
Linking Futures across Scales
Participatory Scenario Planning for Protected Areas Management under the Ecosystem Services Framework
Tackling Biocomplexity with Meta-models for Species Risk Assessment
Three horizons
Adaptive capacity
Toward an urgent yet deliberate conservation strategy
The Relevance of Local Participatory Scenario Planning for Ecosystem Management Policies in the Basque Country, Northern Spain
From stories to maps
Improving participatory resilience assessment by cross-fertilizing the Resilience Alliance and Transition Movement approaches
Value-based scenario planning
Potential Effects of Climate Change on Treeline Position in the Swedish Mountains
Navigating trade-offs in land-use planning
Toward Integrated Analysis of Human Impacts on Forest Biodiversity
Cumulative Effects Planning
Cumulative Effects Assessment
Combining participatory scenario planning and systems modeling to identify drivers of future sustainability on the Mongolian Plateau
Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes
Unpacking “Participation” in the Adaptive Management of Social–ecological Systems
Scenario planning during rapid ecological change
Resilience Thinking and a Decision-Analytic Approach to Conservation
Visualizing stakeholders' willingness for collective action in participatory scenario planning
Seeing the forest for more than the trees
Environmental change
Bringing together social-ecological system and territoire concepts to explore nature-society dynamics
The Montérégie Connection
Navigating the Back Loop
A holistic approach to studying social-ecological systems and its application to southern Transylvania
Building adaptive capacity in a coastal region experiencing global change
Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping
Local perspectives and global archetypes in scenario development
Scenario Analysis to Identify Viable Conservation Strategies in Paraguay's Imperiled Atlantic Forest
Stories in social-ecological knowledge cocreation
A Classification Framework for Running Adaptive Management Rapids
The practice and promise of private land conservation
The Role of Participatory Modeling in Landscape Approaches to Reconcile Conservation and Development
Improving ecosystem service frameworks to address wicked problems
Failing to plan is planning to fail
Making Investments in Dryland Development Work
A Portfolio Approach to Analyzing Complex Human-Environment Interactions
From Risk Assessment to Knowledge Mapping
Biosphere Futures
Integrating Research Tools to Support the Management of Social-Ecological Systems Under Climate Change
Tweak, Adapt, or Transform
A review of ecosystems services trade-offs, synergies and scenarios modelling for policy development support
Ecosystem services and trade-offs
Resilience and sustainable development
Envisioning protected areas through participatory scenario planning
Second Homes and the Management of Local Development
Conceptual Models for Marine and Freshwater Systems in Alaska
Participatory scenario planning and framing of social-ecological systems
Hunting humans
Bridging knowledge systems to enhance governance of environmental commons
La modélisation d'accompagnement. Une démarche participative en appui au développement durable
Landscape modification and habitat fragmentation
General Resilience to Cope with Extreme Events
A social-ecological systems approach for environmental management
Navigating complexity through knowledge coproduction
Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States
An Exploratory Framework for the Empirical Measurement of Resilience
Participatory scenario development for environmental management
An ecological perspective on the valuation of ecosystem services
Toward Principles for Enhancing the Resilience of Ecosystem Services
Companion Modelling
Increased exposure of Colombian birds to rapidly expanding human footprint
Multi-level Scenarios for Exploring Alternative Futures for Upper Tributary Watersheds in Mainland Southeast Asia
Disproportionate magnitude of climate change in United States national parks
Exploring the influence of team characteristics on the quality of scenarios in disaster management
Sustaining scenarios
Education and adaptive capacity
Navigating generative AI in higher education – six near future scenarios
Barriers and Possibilities for Interdisciplinary Disaster Science Research
Stress tests for public service resilience
Scenario planning as a tool to manage tourism uncertainties during the era of Covid-19
Infrastructure capacity planning for reducing risks of future hydrologic extremes
The potential for adaptive water governance on the US–Mexico border
Urban climate change adaptation planning using participatory scenarios
Expert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the Northeast Atlantic
Using a quantitative model for participatory geo-foresight
Using scenarios to make decisions about the future
Command and Control and the Pathology of Natural Resource Management
The Era of Management Is Over
Scenarios
Assessing Future Ecosystem Services
Ecological and Social Dynamics in Simple Models of Ecosystem Management
Visions for a sustainable Europe
Science for the post-normal age
The Year 2000
Seeing Like a State
| Unique citing works | 268 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 11,17 |
| Citation span | 2002 - 2026 (25) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | Yes |
| Citation types | Neutral: 196 |