Local mortality patterns in Italy at the beginning of the 21st century
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 24224874 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Gustavo De Santis (0000-0003-2058-2629), Federico Benassi (0000-0002-8861-9996), Gianni Carboni (0009-0005-3207-8739), Mauro Maltagliati (0000-0002-8612-4789) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 82 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Publication date | 2026-02-23 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Genus (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0016-6987 • E-ISSN: 2035-5556 |
| Publisher | Springer Science and Business Media LLC (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1186/s41118-025-00262-3 |
| OpenAlex | W7131173013 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 44 |
We analysed mortality levels and trends at the municipal level in Italy between 2002 and 2018, covering approximately 8000 local administrative units. Detailed mortality data at this level are unavailable, and apparently only crude death rates can be calculated (deaths divided by the average, i.e. mid-year, population). To overcome this limitation, we calculated standardised mortality ratios (SMR), comparing observed deaths to expected deaths derived by applying national age-specific mortality rates to local population age structures. We validated this approach, examined its properties, and used it to investigate local mortality patterns across Italy. Our findings highlight limited territorial heterogeneity in SMR, although with a slight increase over time: the coefficient of variation rose from 12.5% to 15%. The between-region variance component also increased, while the within-region component remained predominant, accounting for approximately 80% of the total variance. Selected ecological factors, particularly an Istat-developed frailty index for municipalities, were found to correlate with small-scale mortality patterns. Global spatial regression models (spatial autoregressive—SAR and spatial error—SEM) further revealed strong spillover effects influencing local mortality.
crude death rate · Frailty Index · Italy · regional heterogeneity · spatial regression · spatial spillover effects · Standardized mortality ratio · Health disparities and outcomes · Healthcare Systems and Public Health · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
Introduction to Spatial Econometrics
The Interpretation of Statistical Maps
The Case for Regional Development Intervention
How to Interpret the Coefficients of Spatial Models
Convergence, decentralization and spatial effects
Top–down disaggregation of life expectancy up to municipal areas, using linear self-regressive spatial models
Divided Cities
It never rains but it pours
New perspectives on old inequalities
The regional dynamics of internal migration intensities in Italy
Patterns of Covid-19 related excess mortality in the municipalities of Northern Italy during the first wave of the pandemic
Local mortality estimates during the Covid-19 pandemic in Italy
What Impact Do Contextual Variables Have on the Changing Geography of Mortality in Italy
Sex Differences in Mortality at the Local Level
The Effect of the Great Recession on Italian Life Expectancy
Evaluation of methodologies for small area life expectancy estimation
A state-based regression model for estimating substate life expectancy
Mortality Convergence in Europe? Spatial Differences in Life Expectancy Gains Between 1995 and 2019
Cause-specific mortality as a sentinel indicator of current socioeconomic conditions in Italy
Gompertz, Makeham, and Siler models explain Taylor's law in human mortality data
Taylor's power law in human mortality
| Highly cited | No |
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