A trajectory of change in the Guiers Lake Basin, Senegal

The Guiers Lake Basin in Senegal has undergone intensive changes through numerous water development initiatives such as water treatment plants for the Dakar drinking water supply, agriculture, livestock breeding, and fishing. In the region, large-scale farming activities and agribusinesses have increasingly encroached on lands where subsistence family farming once dominated. This situation has significant implications for water quality, quantity, environmental health, and local livelihoods, thus potentially threatening the sustainability of the lake. In addition, stakeholders across the basin have been operating in isolation with little or no collaboration. We applied the transdisciplinary, complex social-ecological systems (CSES) based adaptive systemic approach (ASA) to examine and support transformation toward improved water security in the Guiers Lake Basin. The ASA is designed to shift complex challenges using participatory and adaptive processes, transformative social learning, and the integration of diverse knowledge systems. Our implementation combined extensive research into social and biophysical aspects of the basin with iterative multi-stakeholder engagements. To synthesize these findings, we employed causal loop diagramming as an analytical tool, systematically mapping system relationships, feedback mechanisms, and potential intervention levers based on a leverage points framework. We demonstrate how the ASA process has initiated a trajectory of change by building participatory governance capacity for multiple stakeholders through trust building, shared systems learning, and engagement to take action and support collaboration. Our analysis identifies key leverage points for strategic interventions, while acknowledging that sustainable transformation requires careful attention to existing power dynamics and institutional constraints. We conclude by examining conditions necessary for maintaining positive trajectories and addressing potential barriers to sustained change.

agricultural encroachment · causal loop diagrams · institutional constraints · leverage points · multi-stakeholder collaboration · participatory governance · power relations · Social learning · social-ecological systems · Stakeholder engagement · subsistence farming · transformative change · Water quality · Water security · Integrated Water Resources Management · Sustainability and Climate Change Governance · Water Resource Management and Quality