Prediction markets as meta-episteme

Artificial intelligence, forecasting tournaments, prediction markets, and economic growth

Bibliographic Data

ID2769853
AuthorsRyan H Murphy (0000-0002-2596-8750, Bridwell Institute for Economic Freedom SMU Cox School of Business Texas Dallas USA, corresponding author)
Year2024
Volume83
Issue2
Pages383-392
Publication date2024-03-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueAmerican Journal of Economics and Sociology (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0002-9246 • E-ISSN: 1536-7150
PublisherWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1111/ajes.12546
OpenAlexW4387303747
LanguageEN
Citations received1
References cited22

This paper presents a speculative framework suggesting that prediction markets (or its epistemic cousins such as artificial intelligence or forecasting tournaments) may constitute a break in the expansion of human knowledge in a manner similar to the impact of the Scientific and Industrial Revolutions. Just as the scientific understanding of the natural world facilitated the development of useful technologies to move far faster than what is allowed by blind evolution and tinkering, tools such as prediction markets allow for scientific knowledge to move faster than its current evolutionary process. The intellectual bases for these tools, such as the interpretation of probabilities as bets, are relatively recent additions to human knowledge, which may have significant implications for how we evaluate past thinkers, versus what is now possible or may be possible in the future

Economics · Episteme · Epistemology · Interpretation (philosophy) · Process (computing) · Artificial Intelligence · Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis · Computer Science · Financial Markets and Investment Strategies · Philosophy · Sports Analytics and Performance

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Open DOIOpen Access