A Primer on Statistical Analysis of Dynamical Systems in Historical Social Sciences (with a Particular Emphasis on Secular Cycles)
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 3083180 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Peter Turchin (0000-0002-1292-8100, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2005 |
| Volume | 1 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Publication date | 2005-09-18 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Structure and Dynamics eJournal of Anthropological and Related Sciences (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1554-3374 • E-ISSN: 1554-3374 |
| Publisher | California Digital Library (CDL) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.5070/sd911003265 |
| OpenAlex | W90847800 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 5 |
This primer explicates the conceptual foundations of the statistical approach to detecting dynamical feedbacks. It is assumed that we have time-series data on several aspects of the studied system. The basic idea of the approach is to regress discrete rates of change of measured variables on variables themselves. I discuss several issues involved in the analysis, such as how to select the appropriate time step, or the delay parameter. The goal of the analysis is to determine whether a particular predictor variable, or set of variables, has a statistically detectable effect on the response. This is accomplished by cross-validation
Biology · Data set · Dynamical systems theory · Econometrics · Emphasis (telecommunications · Physics · Series (stratigraphy · Set (abstract data type · Statistical analysis · Statistical physics · Statistics · Time series · Variable (mathematics · Variables · Computer Science · Diverse Scientific and Engineering Research · Mathematics
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,07 |
| Citation span | 2012 - 2012 (1) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |