Promise and Performance
A Dynamic Model of Presidential Popularity
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 3214531 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Charles W Ostrom (Michigan State University), Dennis M Simon (University of Minnesota) |
| Year | 1985 |
| Volume | 79 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 334-358 |
| Publication date | 1985-06-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Political Science Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0003-0554 • E-ISSN: 1537-5943 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.2307/1956653 |
| OpenAlex | W2109017144 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 256 |
| References cited | 25 |
The growth of public opinion measurement in the last 40 years has added a new dimension to the study of presidential behavior. Not only have public evaluations become more newsworthy, but the importance of public support as a resource and determinant of political survival has been enhanced. Recent scholarship on the presidency has documented the value of public support, attempted to identify its major determinants, and speculated about the manner in which presidents might influence these evaluations.This research is designed to integrate these concerns into a single model and thereby to examine the interdependence between public support as a product of citizen decisions and as a political resource. First, a characterization of the citizen as an evaluator of the president is developed and used to construct an equation of presidential approval. Next, we develop an equation that explains presidential effectiveness in the legislative arena and illustrates the operation of public support as a presidential resource. The public support and legislative effectiveness equations are specified as a simultaneous equation system, estimated, and evaluated. The results of the model are then used to expand the conventional wisdom about the determinants of public support, to examine the consequences of the reciprocal relationship between public support and legislative success, and to generate ex post forecasts of President Reagan's support from 1981 through 1983
Construct (python library · Legislature · Political science · Politics · Popularity · Presidency · Presidential system · Public opinion · Public relations · Resource (disambiguation · Scholarship · Structural equation modeling · Computer Science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Law · Policy Transfer and Learning · Public Administration
Ballots and battlefields
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The Psychological Underpinnings of Political Behavior
The Power of American Governors
The Myth of Presidential Representation
Defining the American Public Opinion/Foreign Policy Nexus
Presidential Use of Executive Orders, 1953-1994
Statements of Resolve
The dual economy and Arab-Israeli use of force
Congress, Presidential Approval, and U.S. Dispute Initiation
Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making
Flood response and political survival
Vengeful Citizens, Violent States
A presidência e a separação dos poderes no Brasil (1999-2002)
The dual attitudinal dynamics of public opinion
A Review of Public Issue Salience
Reassessing Gendered Reactions to Terrorist Attacks
Discovering Theory Dynamics by Computer Simulation
Going it Alone
The Rhetorical Presidency
Stuck between a rock and a hard place
The Limits of Presidential Agenda Setting
Trust, Crisis, and Delegation
Politics, Economy, and Dynamics of Presidential Popularity in the Kim Dae Jung Government in South Korea
Diversionary Dragons, or “Talking Tough in Taipei”
The Asymmetric Impact of Inflation on Presidential Approval
The President's Legislative Program
The Permanent Campaign Strategy of Prime Ministers in Parliamentary Systems
What Predicts Trends in the White House Mail
French popularity functions
Does market volatility impact presidential approval
Why Do Voters Change Their Evaluations of a President? A Taiwanese Case
Contesting counter-terrorism
US Domestic Politics and International Cooperation, 1953–1998
The Impact of Treasury Yields on US Presidential Approval, 1960–2010
Undivided Ukraine
George Bush and the Costs of High Popularity
Is There Real Opinion Change
Questioning the Obvious
The impact of agency failure on executive approval
Public opinion on National Security Agency surveillance programs
Presidents and Defense Contracting, 1953-1992
Foreign Policy Determinants
Whose Approval Matters? Reelection, Constituency Approval, and Senate Support for President George W. Bush
A Tale of Three Variables
Modeling the rally event in presidential politics
Time and the life cycle of presidential approval
Building Public Support from the Grassroots Up
How Public Opinion Constrains the Use of Force
It's the War, Stupid!”
Polls and Elections
Presidential Leverage and the Politics of Policy Formulation
Politics or Policy? How Rhetoric Matters to Presidential Leadership of Congress
Source Material
Constituent Approval, Electoral Marginality, and Congressional Support for the President
Substance versus Style
The Political Fallout of Taking a Stand
Administrative Politics and the Public Presidency
Evaluating the President on Your Priorities
Lame‐Duck Foreign Policy
Polls and Elections
Polls and Elections Some Folks You Just Can't Reach
The Polls
Pontificating About Moe's Pontifications
Polls and Elections
The Revolution in Presidential Studies
Peasants and Bankers
Why Did Clinton Survive the Impeachment Crisis? A Test of Three Explanations
Congressional Support of the President
The Polls
Public Opinion Toward Presidential Power
Public Opinion and Public Policy
Citizen Oversight of Presidential Performance
We All Want a Revolution
Polls and Elections
The Public Presidency, Personal Approval Ratings, and Policy Making
The Last Word
Polls and Elections
To Change or Not to Change Horses
Limits to cooperation
The political incentive explanation of “democratic peace”
The consequences of war
Guns 'N jobs
Rallying around the President
Presidential Staffing and Public Opinion
Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections
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Granger causality, rational expectations and aversion to unemployment and inflation
Cyclical accountability
Shaping history” or “Riding the wave”
The Political Impact of Traditional Family Values
Further Beyond Deterrence
Public Opinion and Presidential Support
Public Opinion and the U.S. Supreme Court
The Federal Balanced Budget Force
A Note on the Dynamics and Idiosyncrasies of Gubernatorial Popularity
Examining Variance in Presidential Approval
Standing up for Congress
Public Opinion and Support for U.S. Presidents' Foreign Policies
Are dollars popular? The Fed’s currency swap arrangements and recipient governments’ popularity
Elements of Econometrics
Discontinuities in the symbolic environment
The President's Agenda
A Textbook of Econometrics
Explaining Presidential Popularity
On the Demand for Economic Outcomes
The Impact of Economic Conditions on Presidential Popularity
Public Support for American Presidents
Subjective Political Efficacy as a Measure of Diffuse Support
Inflation and Presidential Popularity
Managing Popular Support
Political Drama, Economic Conditions, and the Dynamics of Presidential Popularity
The Dynamics of Political Support for American Presidents Among Occupational and Partisan Groups
Macroeconomic Conditions and Fluctuations of Presidential Popularity
The Primacy Principle
The Two Presidencies
An Expository Development of a Mathematical Model of the Electoral Process
The President and the Political Use of Force
Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections
Presidential Popularity and Negative Voting
Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson
| Unique citing works | 256 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 6,1 |
| Citation span | 1984 - 2026 (43) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | Yes |
| Citation types | Neutral: 255 |