Hot under the collar

A latent measure of interstate hostility

Bibliographic Data

ID3918340
AuthorsZhanna Terechshenko (0000-0001-7585-1369, New York University, corresponding author)
Year2020
Volume57
Issue6
Pages764-776
Publication date2020-11-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Peace Research (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-3433 • E-ISSN: 1460-3578
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022343320962546
OpenAlexW3103928587
LanguageEN
Citations received14
References cited39

The majority of studies on international conflict escalation use a variety of measures of hostility including the use of force, reciprocity, and the number of fatalities. The use of different measures, however, leads to different empirical results and creates difficulties when testing existing theories of interstate conflict. Furthermore, hostility measures currently used in the conflict literature are ill suited to the task of identifying consistent predictors of international conflict escalation. This article presents a new dyadic latent measure of interstate hostility, created using a Bayesian item-response theory model and conflict data from the Militarized Interstate Dispute (MID) and Phoenix political event datasets. This model (1) provides a more granular, conceptually precise, and validated measure of hostility, which incorporates the uncertainty inherent in the latent variable; and (2) solves the problem of temporal variation in event data using a varying-intercept structure and human-coded data as a benchmark against which biases in machine-coded data are corrected. In addition, this measurement model allows for the systematic evaluation of how existing measures relate to the construct of hostility. The presented model will therefore enhance the ability of researchers to understand factors affecting conflict dynamics, including escalation and de-escalation processes

Bayesian probability · Benchmark (surveying) · Cognitive psychology · Construct (python library) · Data mining · Econometrics · Economics · Event (particle physics) · Hostility · International conflict · Latent variable · Measure (data warehouse) · Poison control · Political science · Politics · Reciprocity (cultural anthropology) · Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Peacebuilding and International Security · Political Conflict and Governance · Psychology · Social Psychology

Tools

Open DOI