Measuring Arms
Introducing the Global Military Spending Dataset
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6284304 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Miriam Barnum (0000-0002-2988-6648, Department of Political Science, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA), Christopher J Fari (0000-0001-9837-186X, University of Michigan, corresponding author), Jonathan N Markowitz (0000-0001-7429-8397, School of International Relations, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA), Gaea Morales (0000-0003-3046-4562, School of International Relations, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 69 |
| Issue | 2-3 |
| Pages | 540-567 |
| Publication date | 2025-03-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/00220027241232964 |
| OpenAlex | W4391932450 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 8 |
| References cited | 76 |
Military spending data measure key international relations concepts such as balancing, arms races, the distribution of power, and the severity of military burdens. Unfortunately, missing values and measurement error threaten the validity of existing findings. Addressing this challenge, we introduce the Global Military Spending Dataset (GMSD). GMSD collates new and existing expenditure variables from a comprehensive collection of sources, expands data coverage, and employs a latent variable model to estimate missing values and quantify measurement error. We validate the data and present new findings. First, correlations between economic surplus and military spending are currently higher than at any point in the last two-hundred years. Second, updating DiGiuseppe and Poast’s (2018) analysis, we find larger substantive effects. Specifically, we find that the (negative) effect of a democratic ally on military spending is three times larger, and the (positive) effect of an increase in GDP is five times larger than previously estimated
Economics · Political science · Defense, Military, and Policy Studies · International Development and Aid · Peacebuilding and International Security
Midstream geopolitics
Human Capital, Unequal Opportunities and Productivity Convergence
Defense Spending, Conflict and Economic Growth in Europe
Arming the new Sheriff in Town
Beyond burden-sharing
Reluctant ratifiers
The Correlates of Brazil’s Military Expenditures, 1822-1945
The Coevolution of Networks of Interstate Support, Interstate Threat, and Civil War
Producing Security
Arm
A Political Economy of Global Security Approach
Forecasting military expenditure
Military Leadership, Institutional Change, and Priorities in Military Spending
Protectionist Empire
Measuring National Power
The effect of alliance membership on national defense burdens, 1953–88
Power at Sea
Validity of power indices
Reconstructing the correlates of war dataset on material capabilities of states, 1816–1985
Going the Distance
Is the NPT unraveling? Evidence from text analysis of review conference statements
The Myth of Entangling Alliances
Desperate Times, Desperate Measures
Graceful Decline? The Surprising Success of Great Power Retrenchment
The Power of Nations
Escape from the State of Nature
The Stability of a Unipolar World
Exploring the Dynamics of Latent Variable Models
A Reactive Linkage Model of the U.S. Defense Expenditure Policymaking Process
How Organizations Learn
Unipolarity, Status Competition, and Great Power War
The “Correlates of War” Project
Testing Novel Implications from the Selectorate Theory of War
Measuring the Consolidation of Power in Nondemocracies
Containing Rogues
Guns, Butter, and Growth
When Do “Relative Gains” Impede Trade
War Aims and War Outcomes
New Estimates of Over 500 Years of Historic GDP and Population Data
Domestic Political Accountability and the Escalation and Settlement of International Disputes
Military Famine, Human Rights, and Child Hunger
A Very Sharp Sword
Producing Goods and Projecting Power
Bearing the Defense Burden, 1886-1989
Military Spending in the United States, Soviet Union, and the People's Republic of China
System Uncertainty, Risk Propensity, and International Conflict among the Great Powers
Spending Priorities and Democratic Rule in Latin America
Self-Reinforcing Civilian Control
Uncertainty, Salient Stakes, and the Causes of Conventional Arms Races
The Domestic Politics of Trade and Conflict1
Democratization and Stability in East Asia1
Productive Pacifists
Kantian Liberalism, Regime Type, and Military Resource Allocation
Bread Before Guns or Butter
The Domestic Politics of World Power
Crude Calculations
Cooperation, Conflict, and the Costs of Anarchy
The Effects of the International Security Environment on National Military Expenditures
Arms versus Democratic Allies
Anticipating War? War Preparations and the Steps-to-War Thesis
Raison de l’Hégémonie (The Hegemon’s Interest)
What states want
Estimating one-sided-killings from a robust measurement model of human rights
Who wants to be a major power? Explaining the expansion of foreign policy ambition
Hot under the collar
What goes up, must come down? The asymmetric effects of economic growth and international threat on military spending
Venezuela and military expenditure data
Power, proximity, and democracy
International Economics and International Relations
Democracy, War Initiation, and Victory
Guns, Butter, and Anarchy
Yes, Human Rights Practices Are Improving Over Time
Why Arms Control Is So Rare
Words and Deeds in Soviet Foreign Policy
Power Politics and International Trade
| Unique citing works | 8 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 4 |
| Citation span | 2024 - 2026 (3) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 8 |