Historical Presidential Betting Markets
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4030302 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Paul W Rhode (Professor of Economics, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina; Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.), Koleman S Strumpf (Associate Professor of Economics, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina.), Koleman Strumpf (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) |
| Year | 2004 |
| Volume | 18 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 127-142 |
| Publication date | 2004-05-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Journal of Economic Perspectives (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0895-3309 • E-ISSN: 1944-7965 |
| Publisher | American Economic Association (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1257/0895330041371277 |
| OpenAlex | W1984606044 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 30 |
| References cited | 7 |
This paper analyzes the large and often well-organized markets for betting on U.S. presidential elections that operated between 1868 and 1940. Four main points are addressed. First, we show that the market did a remarkable job forecasting elections in an era before scientific polling. Second, the market was fairly efficient, despite the limited information of participants and active attempts to manipulate the odds. Third, we argue political betting markets disappeared largely because of the rise of scientific polls and the increasing availability of other forms of gambling. Finally, we discuss lessons this experience provides for the present
Economics · Financial economics · Logistic regression · Market efficiency · Odds · Political science · Politics · Polling · Presidential election · Presidential system · Computer Science · Gambling Behavior and Treatments · Law · Sports Analytics and Performance · Wine Industry and Tourism
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| Unique citing works | 30 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,5 |
| Citation span | 2006 - 2026 (21) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 27 |