The Long-Term Effect of the Timing of Fertility Decline on Population Size

Bibliographic Data

ID4121475
AuthorsBrian C O''Neill (0000-0001-7505-8897, Centre d'études et de recherches internationales de Sciences Po), Brian C O'Neill, Sergei Scherbov (0000-0002-0881-1073, University of Groningen), Wolfgang Lutz (0000-0001-7975-8145, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)
Year1999
Volume25
Issue4
Pages749-756
Publication date1999-12-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenuePopulation and Development Review (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0098-7921 • E-ISSN: 1728-4457
PublisherWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1111/j.1728-4457.1999.00749.x
OpenAlexW1590214654
LanguageEN
Citations received7
References cited5

Existing long-range population projections imply that the timing of the fertility transition has a relatively unimportant effect on long-term population size when compared with the impact of the level at which fertility is assumed eventually to stabilize. However, this note shows that the effect of the timing of fertility decline is a function of the eventual fertility rate: the lower the eventual fertility rate, the greater the effect of the timing of the transition becomes. This finding has important implications for projection methodology, as well as for policies related to the consequences of long-term levels of population size

Birth rate · Demographic transition · Economics · Family planning · Fertility · Population · Population growth · Population momentum · Population projection · Population size · Range (aeronautics) · Research methodology · Term (time) · Total fertility rate · Birth, Development, and Health · Demography · Economic Growth and Productivity · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management

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