Demographic Forecasting and the Easterlin Hypothesis
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4121776 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Ronald Demos Lee (corresponding author) |
| Year | 1976 |
| Volume | 2 |
| Issue | 3/4 |
| Pages | 459 |
| Publication date | 1976-09-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Population and Development Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0098-7921 • E-ISSN: 1728-4457 |
| Publisher | JSTOR (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.2307/1971622 |
| OpenAlex | W1996984725 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 24 |
A model for forecasting fertility fluctuations in a population that is highly urbanized has low mortality and contracepts effectively is described. Based on the research of Easterlin which questions whether fertility and age distribution can be forecast separately it exploits a strong observed association of age-specific fertility and population size and structure. Population size and age structure are hypothesized to affect relative income through the mechanisms of pressure on limited resources. It is the comparison of income with expectations or aspirations that matters in the relationship. There will thus be a positive relationship between fertility and relative income and a negative one between age group size and income. Taken together these suggest that fertility and cohort size should be inversely related; which association forms the basis for the model. This is contrary to the usual assumption for forecasting in the U.S. i.e. that fertility rates are independent of population size and age structure. Though the model has not yet been well tested and still depnds on many subjective decisions it does help to identify the long run level of fertility by placing current experience in perspective. The ability to forecast fluctuations in fertility and age structure will demographers believe be increasingly important and will have major policy implications. When applied to the U.S. the model indicates that current fertility is only temporarily low and an upturn should occur after 5 or 10 years
Economics · demographic modeling and climate adaptation · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management · Psychology
Fertility Forecasting in the German-speaking World
Rural Small-Scale Women Farmers and Preference for Family Size in South-East Nigeria
Meta-analysis of the impact of age structure on fertility
Fertility and the Easterlin hypothesis
Toward a general analysis of endogenous Easterlin cycles
Macro-effects of changes in household preferences for children
Self-generated fertility waves in a non-linear continuous overlapping generations model
Complex demoeconomic dynamics
Can Knowledge Improve Forecasts
Population Cycles, Formal Theory of
La interpretación easterliniana de la fecundidad. Consenso y polémica en torno a la obra del autor
The influence of first generation fertility and economic status on second generation fertility
Limit cycle oscillations of the human population
U.S. births and limit cycle Models
What will 1984 be like? Socioeconomic implications of recent twists in age structure
Earnings, Relative Income, and Family Formation
Economic and other determinants of annual change in U.S. fertility
Good times, bad times
Political Perceptions of Population Stabilization and Decline
The Relevance of the 'Easterlin hypothesis' and the 'new home economics' to fertility movements in Great Britain
Forecasting births in Greater London
Forecasting Population in an Uncertain World
Relative Cohort Size
Perturbation analysis of nonlinear matrix population models
| Unique citing works | 24 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,5 |
| Citation span | 1978 - 2025 (48) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 15 |