A Simple Theoretical Model of the Office-Development Cycle
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4140953 |
|---|---|
| Authors | R Barras (CES Ltd, 5 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SS, England, corresponding author) |
| Year | 1983 |
| Volume | 15 |
| Issue | 10 |
| Pages | 1381-1394 |
| Publication date | 1983-10-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environment and Planning A Economy and Space (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0308-518X • E-ISSN: 1472-3409 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1068/a151381 |
| OpenAlex | W2056316867 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 15 |
| References cited | 10 |
The author proposes a simple theoretical model of the accelerator type which helps to explain some observed characteristics of the pronounced office-development cycle in Britain. The British economy is currently experiencing its third major postwar cycle, the previous peaks of development activity having occurred in the early 1960s and early 1970s, the latter during the famous 'property boom'. The author begins with a summary guide to the literature on building cycles, examining the various exogenous factors which have been proposed to explain these cycles and identifying a crucial endogenous causal factor, which is the long production period between new building orders and completions. This delay is incorporated into an accelerator model of the development process, yielding a second-order difference equation which generates cyclical fluctuations around an equilibrium growth path. The behaviour of the model is then tested using typical values of the main parameters, and compared with the results of previous empirical research on the office-development cycle which has focused on the interaction of the user demand, investment demand, and development supply of new building
Boom · Business cycle · Econometrics · Economics · Macroeconomics · Physics · Political science · Computer Science · Engineering · Housing Market and Economics · Mathematics · Finance
The study of urban form in Great Britain
The Geography of Services
Urban Geography
Effects of Telecommunications Technology on Office Location
Effects of planning regulations on housing and land markets
Technical Change and the Urban Development Cycle
Property Cycles in a Global Economy
An Arrow-Cycle Interpretation of the Redevelopment of Stockholm's Central Business District
The Suburbanization of Toronto Offices
Long Swings, Rent Gaps and Structures of Building Provision - the Postwar Transformation of Stockholm's Inner City
Understanding Property Market Dynamics
Dynamic Modelling of the Building Cycle
Extending the Boundary of the City of London? The Development of Canary Wharf
Capital Markets, the Development Industry, and Urban Office Market Dynamics
A Spectral Analysis of Building Cycles in Britain
A Neglected Cycle
Interactions between the Multiplier Analysis and the Principle of Acceleration
Fluctuations in Private Housebuilding in Great Britain, 1950–1966
Readings in Business Cycles
Building Cycles and Britain's Growth
Building in the British Economy between the Wars
Selected Essays in the Dynamics of the Capitalist Economy
Secular Movements in Production and Prices
| Unique citing works | 15 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,37 |
| Citation span | 1985 - 2022 (38) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 14 |