A Spectral Analysis of Building Cycles in Britain

Bibliographic Data

ID4138896
AuthorsR Barras (CES Ltd, 5 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SS; and Department of Economics, Birkbeck College, Malet St, London WC1E 7HX, England), D Ferguson (CES Ltd, 5 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SS; and Department of Economics, Birkbeck College, Malet St, London WC1E 7HX, England)
Year1985
Volume17
Issue10
Pages1369-1391
Publication date1985-10-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironment and Planning A Economy and Space (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0308-518X • E-ISSN: 1472-3409
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1068/a171369
OpenAlexW1982996189
LanguageEN
Citations received11
References cited26

In this paper are presented the results of the first phase of a project sponsored by the Economic and Social Research Council to analyse the incidence and causes of building cycles in Britain; five major sectors of construction are covered-private industrial, private commercial, private housing, public housing, and other public building. Spectral analysis, supplemented by turning point analysis, is used to identify the main postwar cycles in each sector, and to measure their relative phasing and severity, distinguishing short 4-5-year 'demand cycles' associated with the business cycles from longer 'supply cycles' of up to 9-years duration. As the different sectors of building are aggregated, these shorter cycles tend to be smoothed out, revealing a dominant postwar long swing in building activity. This is then compared with previous long swings in the pre-1914 and interwar periods, each of which is associated with successive waves of urbanisation in Britain since the mid-19th century

Business cycle · Economic growth · Economics · Economy · Macroeconomics · Private sector · Public housing · Spectral analysis · Supply and demand · Urbanization · Historical Economic and Social Studies · Housing Market and Economics · Housing, Finance, and Neoliberalism

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