Dynamic Modelling of the Building Cycle
2. Empirical Results
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4142145 |
|---|---|
| Authors | R Barras (CES Ltd, 5 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SS; and Department of Economics, Birkbeck College, London WC1E 7HX, England), D Ferguson (CES Ltd, 5 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SS; and Department of Economics, Birkbeck College, London WC1E 7HX, England) |
| Year | 1987 |
| Volume | 19 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 493-520 |
| Publication date | 1987-04-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environment and Planning A Economy and Space (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0308-518X • E-ISSN: 1472-3409 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1068/a190493 |
| OpenAlex | W2003804195 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 10 |
| References cited | 7 |
This paper is a presentation of the results of the third stage of a project designed to investigate the incidence and causes of postwar building cycles in the British economy. In the first stage spectral analysis was used to identify the main postwar cycles in each sector of building (industrial, commercial, and residential); the second stage involved the development of a theoretical framework suitable for dynamic modelling of these cycles; and the third stage was concerned with estimating the best time-series model for each cycle. The estimated models demonstrate the presence of both an endogenous supply-side mechanism creating major building cycles of up to nine years' duration, and the exogenous influence of business-cycle fluctuations within user and investment submarkets which are transmitted via the demand for property into short building cycles of four to five years duration. In addition, the models demonstrate how the building cycle in each sector may be influenced by other factors, such as development costs and property rents and values
Business cycle · Econometrics · Economic rent · Economics · Economy · Macroeconomics · Microeconomics · Operations management · Supply and demand · Housing Market and Economics
Rational Expectations, Uncertainty and Cyclical Activity in the British Office Market
The Impact of Planning on Local Business Rents
International Structural Adjustment and its Sectoral and Spatial Impacts
Property Cycles in a Global Economy
Long Swings, Rent Gaps and Structures of Building Provision - the Postwar Transformation of Stockholm's Inner City
Understanding Property Market Dynamics
The Integration of Property and Financial Markets
The Stylised Facts of the UK Commercial Building Cycles
Capital Markets, the Development Industry, and Urban Office Market Dynamics
Performing property cycles
| Unique citing works | 10 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,29 |
| Citation span | 1991 - 2016 (26) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 10 |