Retrospective pledge voting and mistrusting citizens
Evidence for the electoral punishment of pledge breakage from a survey experiment
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4170063 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Theres Matthieß (0009-0001-2514-1411, Universität Trier, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 80 |
| Pages | 102547 |
| Publication date | 2022-12-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Electoral Studies (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0261-3794 • E-ISSN: 1873-6890 |
| Publisher | Elsevier BV (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102547 |
| OpenAlex | W4307411091 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 15 |
| References cited | 45 |
Do voters punish government parties for breaking an election pledge? How do preexisting opinions affect retrospective pledge voting (RPV)? This study hypothesizes that pledge breaking entails a fundamental loss of confidence resulting in a lower probability to vote for a government party, and that mistrusting citizens punish pledge breakage more severely. A representative survey experiment (N ¿ 10,000) with a one-dimensional treatment, that is carried out in Germany, provides evidence for these hypotheses. These findings have major implications for our understanding of political representation and the voter–party-relation. The results of this paper stress the importance of promissory representation and provide evidence that the electorate keeps tabs on government parties, but they also hint at the crucial role of individual predispositions
Economics · Government (linguistics · Pledge · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Punishment (psychology · Representation (politics · Survey data collection · Voting · Voting behavior · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Hate Speech and Cyberbullying Detection · Judicial and Constitutional Studies · Law · Psychology · Social Psychology
Policy as a Bargaining Outcome
Overpromising populists? Why challenger parties make fewer, not more, promises than established parties
Permission to break
Narrow but underdetermined
Following voters in the chain of representation
A party’s pledge fulfillment and procedural transparency affect voters’ trust
When Do Broken Campaign Promises Matter? Evidence From Four Experiments
Welche Rolle spielen Wahlversprechen für die Wahlentscheidung
Auction politics
Signaling Ability Through Policy Change
Do Election Pledges Matter? The Effects of Broken and Kept Election Pledges on Citizens’ Trust in Government
The Effects of Perceived Pledge Performance and the Third-Person Effect on Voting Behavior
How Government Efficiency Shapes Political Trust
Election Pledges in Multiparty Governments
Electoral Campaigns and Parliamentary Practice
Confirmation Bias, Ingroup Bias, and Negativity Bias in Selective Exposure to Political Information
An economic theory of democracy
Incumbency, Campaign Spending, and the Decline of Competition in U.S. House Elections
Media Coverage of Campaign Promises Throughout the Electoral Cycle
Are Niche Parties Fundamentally Different from Mainstream Parties? The Causes and the Electoral Consequences of Western European Parties' Policy Shifts, 1976–1998
A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice
Which Issues do Parties Emphasise? Salience Strategies and Party Organisation in Multiparty Systems
Hot Cognition or Cool Consideration? Testing the Effects of Motivated Reasoning on Political Decision Making
Citizens’ Evaluations of the Fulfillment of Election Pledges
Which Promises Actually Matter? Election Pledge Centrality and Promissory Representation
Time and the Fulfillment of Election Pledges
Trust and Citizens’ Evaluations of Promise Keeping by Governing Parties
Trust Your Compatriots, but Count Your Change
When and Why Are Voters Correct in Their Evaluations of Specific Government Performance
An Experimental Investigation of Election Promises
Party pledges in the news
Promising ever more
Citizens’ evaluations of campaign pledge fulfillment in Canada
Money, Sex and Broken Promises
The effects of party identification on perceptions of pledge fulfilment
Retrospective pledge voting
Asymmetric Accountability
What Moves Parties
When Payouts Pay Off
How Lasting Is Voter Gratitude? An Analysis of the Short‐ and Long‐Term Electoral Returns to Beneficial Policy
Electoral Backlash against Climate Policy
A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting
Motivated Skepticism in the Evaluation of Political Beliefs
Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study
The Fulfillment of Parties’ Election Pledges
Multidimensional Representation
Testing the Mandate Model in Britain and the United States
The Attribution of Credit and Blame to Governments and Its Impact on Vote Choice
A Re-assessment of the Concept of Political Support
What voters want from their parties
Rethinking Representation
When heuristics go bad
Issue salience, issue ownership, and issue-based vote choice
Economic voting and political context
Voting Correctly
Dynamic Representation
Citizens as Complicits
Attitudes toward Highly Skilled and Low-skilled Immigration
| Unique citing works | 15 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 7,5 |
| Citation span | 2024 - 2026 (3) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 12 |