The choice among past trends as a basis for the prediction of future trends in old-age mortality
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4267061 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Fanny Janssen (0000-0002-3110-238X, University of Groningen), Anton E Kunst (0000-0002-3313-5273, Erasmus University Rotterdam), Anton Kunst |
| Year | 2007 |
| Volume | 61 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 315-326 |
| Publication date | 2007-11-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Population Studies (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0032-4728 • E-ISSN: 1477-4747 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/00324720701571632 |
| PMID | 17979005 |
| OpenAlex | W2075635011 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 11 |
| References cited | 31 |
We explored the extent to which projections of future old-age mortality trends differ when different projection bases are used. For seven European countries, four alternative sets of annual rates of mortality change were estimated with age-period log-linear regression models, and subsequently applied to age-specific all-cause mortality rates (80+) in 1999 to predict mortality levels up to 2050. On average, up to 2050, e80 is predicted to increase further by 2.33 years among men and 4.03 years among women. Choosing a historical period of 25 instead of 50 years results in higher predicted gains in e80 for men but lower gains for women. Choosing non-smoking-related mortality instead of all-cause mortality leads to higher gains for women and mixed results for men. In all alternatives there is a strong divergence of predicted mortality levels between the countries. Future projections should be preceded by a thorough study of past trends and their determinants
Geography · Sociology · Demography · Global Health Care Issues · Health disparities and outcomes · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management · Medicine · Gerontology
The Old-Age Healthy Dependency Ratio in Europe
Does the Impact of the Tobacco Epidemic Explain Structural Changes in the Decline of Mortality
Modeling and Forecasting Healthy Life Expectancy With Compositional Data Analysis
Including the Smoking Epidemic in Internationally Coherent Mortality Projections
A modal age at death approach to forecasting adult mortality
Trends in Causes of Death in Low-Mortality Countries
Forecasting differences in life expectancy by education
Does selection of mortality model make a difference in projecting population ageing
Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy
Smoothing and projecting age-specific probabilities of death by Topals
The modal age at death and the shifting mortality hypothesis
Broken Limits to Life Expectancy
Mortality from tobacco in developed countries
A descriptive model of the cigarette epidemic in developed countries
Measuring the accumulated hazards of smoking
Mortality and population ageing
Variations in the pace of old-age mortality decline in seven European countries, 1950–1999
Demography and Gerontology
Relation between trends in late middle age mortality and trends in old age mortality—is there evidence for mortality selection
Demographic Conditions Responsible for Population Aging
Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations
Long-range trends in adult mortality
Declining sex differences in mortality from lung cancer in high-income nations
Narrowing sex differentials in life expectancy in the industrialized world
How Long Will We Live
Recent trends in sex mortality ratios for adults in developed countries
Changes in mortality among the elderly Finnish population 1951-1979
Cigarette Use and the Narrowing Sex Differential in Mortality
On the Scale of Global Demographic Convergence 1950-2000
Convergences and divergences in mortality
| Unique citing works | 11 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,61 |
| Citation span | 2008 - 2025 (18) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 11 |