Maximal Cluelessness
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4351822 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Andreas L Mogensen (0000-0001-6239-8710, Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University, UK, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2020 |
| Volume | 71 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 141-162 |
| Publication date | 2020-12-14 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Philosophical Quarterly (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0031-8094 • E-ISSN: 1467-9213 |
| Publisher | Oxford University Press (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1093/pq/pqaa021 |
| OpenAlex | W4243002657 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 14 |
| References cited | 54 |
I argue that many of the priority rankings that have been proposed by effective altruists seem to be in tension with apparently reasonable assumptions about the rational pursuit of our aims in the face of uncertainty. The particular issue on which I focus arises from recognition of the overwhelming importance and inscrutability of the indirect effects of our actions (so-called cluelessness), conjoined with the plausibility of a permissive decision principle governing cases of deep uncertainty, known as the maximality rule. I conclude that we lack a compelling decision theory that is consistent with a longtermist perspective and does not downplay the depth of our uncertainty, while also supporting orthodox effective altruist conclusions about cause prioritization
Biology · Economics · Epistemology · Face (sociological concept) · Focus (optics) · Law and economics · Management science · Mathematical economics · Permissive · Perspective (graphical) · Positive economics · Prioritization · Social science · Sociology · Artificial Intelligence · Climate Change and Geoengineering · Computer Science · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life · Philosophy
Causation, Cluelessness, and the Long Term
Expected choiceworthiness and fanaticism
A paradox for tiny probabilities and enormous values
Mistakes in the Moral Mathematics of Existential Risk
In Defense of Fanaticism
The Scope of Longtermism
Relevant Claims and Causal Ramifications
Saving Fanaticism
A Bit Less Clueless
The Washout Argument against Longtermism
Uncertainty, equality, fraternity
The epistemic challenge to longtermism
Deep Uncertainty and Incommensurability
The Freedom of Future People
The modern rise of population
Decision Theory with a Human Face
Risk and Rationality
The interaction of human population, food production, and biodiversity protection
An Impossibility Theorem for Welfarist Axiologies
Institutions Don't Rule
On Indeterminate Probabilities
Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority
Death and development
Population Growth and Technological Change
Chapter 8 Demand for children in low income countries
Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms
Unsharp Sharpness
Long-Term Determinants of the Demographic Transition, 1870–2000
How Probabilities Reflect Evidence
A Defense of Imprecise Credences in Inference and Decision Making1
Should We Value Population
The Epistemic Problem Does Not Refute Consequentialism
Consequentialism and the Principle of Indifference
Astronomical Waste
Clues for Consequentialists
Mortality level, desired family size, and population increase
Vagueness, truth and logic
Vague Credence
Can Free Evidence Be Bad? Value of Information for the Imprecise Probabilist
Are We Luminous
Disease and Development
Consequentialism and Cluelessness
Discounting the Future
Whether and Where to Give
Consequentialism, Metaphysical Realism and the Argument from Cluelessness
Environment, Population, and Technology in Primitive Societies
| Unique citing works | 14 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2,8 |
| Citation span | 2021 - 2026 (6) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 14 |