The efficacy of violence prediction
A meta-analytic comparison of nine risk assessment tools
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4425548 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Min Yang (0000-0001-9017-5960, University of Nottingham), Stephen C P Wong (University of Nottingham), Jeremy Coid (0000-0002-9480-0257, University of London) |
| Year | 2010 |
| Volume | 136 |
| Issue | 5 |
| Pages | 740-767 |
| Publication date | 2010-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Psychological Bulletin (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0033-2909 • E-ISSN: 1939-1455 |
| Publisher | American Psychological Association (APA) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1037/a0020473 |
| PMID | 20804235 |
| OpenAlex | W2059165232 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 83 |
| References cited | 28 |
Actuarial risk assessment tools are used extensively to predict future violence, but previous studies comparing their predictive accuracies have produced inconsistent findings as a result of various methodological issues. We conducted meta-analyses of the effect sizes of 9 commonly used risk assessment tools and their subscales to compare their predictive efficacies for violence. The effect sizes were extracted from 28 original reports published between 1999 and 2008, which assessed the predictive accuracy of more than one tool. We used a within-subject design to improve statistical power and multilevel regression models to disentangle random effects of variation between studies and tools and to adjust for study features. All 9 tools and their subscales predicted violence at about the same moderate level of predictive efficacy with the exception of Psychopathy Checklist--Revised (PCL-R) Factor 1, which predicted violence only at chance level among men. Approximately 25% of the total variance was due to differences between tools, whereas approximately 85% of heterogeneity between studies was explained by methodological features (age, length of follow-up, different types of violent outcome, sex, and sex-related interactions). Sex-differentiated efficacy was found for a small number of the tools. If the intention is only to predict future violence, then the 9 tools are essentially interchangeable; the selection of which tool to use in practice should depend on what other functions the tool can perform rather than on its efficacy in predicting violence. The moderate level of predictive accuracy of these tools suggests that they should not be used solely for some criminal justice decision making that requires a very high level of accuracy such as preventive detention
Checklist · Cognitive psychology · Meta-analysis · Outcome (game theory) · Poison control · Predictive power · Predictive validity · Statistics · Variance (accounting) · Clinical Psychology · Crime Patterns and Interventions · Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis · Human Factors and Ergonomics · Mathematics · Medicine · Psychology · Psychopathy, Forensic Psychiatry, Sexual Offending
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Investigating the role of the Psychopathy Checklist–Revised in United States case law
Prescriptive approaches to communicating the risk of violence in actuarial risk assessment
The individual risk assessment of terrorism
Virtue and the Law
Judicial gatekeeping on scientific validity with risk assessment tools
From risk assessment to risk management
Clinical and Forensic Issues in the Assessment of PsychopathyThe authors gratefully acknowledge the contributions of James F. Hemphill to the previous version of this chapter.
Clinical Forensic Psychology
Doing Justice, Preventing Crime
Risk and Needs Assessments in Prisons
Thirty years of research on the Level of Service Scales
Predictions put into practice
Layers of Bias
Publication Bias in the Organizational Sciences
Psychopathic Personality
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Interrater and intra-rater reliability of the Vera-2R tool
Determinants of Dropout From Correctional Offender Treatment
Narrative Case Notes Have the Potential to Predict Seclusion 3 Days in Advance
The Validity of Violence Risk Assessment in Young Adults
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Challenges to court room mental health decision-making in the face of uncertainty
The added value of self-reported complaints in the prediction of recidivism in Dutch forensic outpatients
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Applying the Rules of Evidence to Expert Testimony About Risk
Are risk assessment tools more accurate than unstructured judgments in predicting violent, any, and sexual offending? A meta‐analysis of direct comparison studies
Therapeutic and risk relevance of psychopathy and general criminal attitude change in an institutional sexual offense treatment program
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Independent serious case reviews relating to serious further offences since 2005
Risk management in open prisons
Innovations in violence risk assessment
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The Problems (and possible solutions) of assessing risk, race and recidivism in long operating drug treatment courts
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Clinical Overrides With the YLS/CMI
Predictive Validity of the HCR-20 V3 With Incarcerated Males in Mexico City
An Empirical Test of the Factor Structure of the Violence Risk Scale and Its Measurement Invariance Across Time and Cultural Groups
Normative Data, Predictive Validity, and Factor Structure of a Fourth-Generation Risk Assessment Tool (Orac-PCQ) in a Population of Adjudicated Individuals Serving Short Sentences in the Province of Québec (Canada)
Protective Factor Assessments
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Combining Static and Dynamic Recidivism Risk Information Into the Five-Level Risk and Needs System
Resistance to Antisocial Peers in Adolescents Found Not Criminally Responsible on Account of Mental Disorder
An Examination of the Professional Override of the Level of Service Inventory–Ontario Revision
Criminal Histories and Rates of Recidivism Among Two Subtypes of Psychopathic Individuals
An Economic Analysis of Crime Costs Associated with Psychopathic Personality Disorder and Violence Risk
Algorithms and the Individual in Criminal Law
Die Erfassung der Deliktschwere in Evaluationsstudien zur Straftäterbehandlung
Use of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised in Legal Contexts
Measurement Invariance and Convergent Validity of the Psychopathy Checklist
Testing the Factor Structure of the Psychopathy Checklist
Criterion Validity of the Psychopathy Checklist in Legal Contexts
Do We Hold Males and Females to the Same Standard? A Measurement Invariance Study on the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised
The Contours of Assessment
Transitional processes culminating in extreme violence
Developing an empirical classification of violent offences for use in the prediction of recidivism in England and Wales
Does vegetation matter for the criminal behavior among people with serious mental illness
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Threat assessment as a school violence prevention strategy
Indigenous perspectives on violence risk assessment
What is wrong about Robocops as consultants? A technology-centric critique of predictive policing
Gender Effects in Actuarial Risk Assessment
Is it Possible to Use the HCR-20 V2 to Assess the Risk of Violent Recidivism of French Offenders
A Commentary on Statistical Assessment of Violence Recidivism Risk
Validation of the Orac-PCQ, an actuarial risk assessment tool for general recidivism
Stalking
Risk assessment of recidivism in Latin America
Fifty Years of American Sentencing Reform
Predictions of Dangerousness in Sentencing
Impulsive versus premeditated aggression in the prediction of violent criminal recidivism
Brain imaging research on psychopathy
Capturing clinical complexity
Risk, Race, and Recidivism
Evaluating social protective factors for violence involvement in Honduras
Institutional Effectiveness and Economic Development
Psychopathy and Gender in Three Faces of Homicide
Predicting violent behavior
Serious and Violent Juvenile Offenders
Methods of Meta-Analysis
Methods of Meta-Analysis
Fixed Effects vs. Random Effects Meta‐Analysis Models
Refining the construct of psychopathy
The revised Psychopathy Checklist
The Recent Past and Near Future of Risk and/or Need Assessment
Classification for Effective Rehabilitation
Coming to Terms With the Terms of Risk
Comparing effect sizes in follow-up studies
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Improving risk assessments for sex offenders
The Prediction of Violence in Adult Offenders
Understanding and Controlling Crime
The Psychology of Criminal Conduct
A classification tree approach to the development of actuarial violence risk assessment tools
Public Protection, Partnership and Risk Penality
Assessing juvenile offenders
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Behavioral sciences and the law
Comparative efficiency of informal (subjective, impressionistic) and formal (mechanical, algorithmic) prediction procedures
The validity and reliability of the Violence Risk Scale
Violence risk assessment
A Meta-Analysis of the Predictors of Adult Offender Recidivism
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| Unique citing works | 83 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 5,19 |
| Citation span | 2010 - 2026 (17) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 75 |