The demographic drivers of future ethnic group populations for UK local areas 2001-2051
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4634618 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Philip Rees (0000-0002-4276-9091, University of Leeds, corresponding author), Pia Wohland (0000-0002-6893-5852, Newcastle University, corresponding author), Paul Norman (0000-0002-6211-1625, University of Leeds, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2013 |
| Volume | 179 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 44-60 |
| Publication date | 2013-03-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Geographical Journal (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0016-7398 • E-ISSN: 1475-4959 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/j.1475-4959.2012.00471.x |
| OpenAlex | W1788644355 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 15 |
| References cited | 11 |
Projections of the ethnic composition of the UK population presage radical change in the future at both national and local levels. The first question that users of such population projections ask is 'what is driving the results?' The answer can be found in the assumptions made for future mortality rates, future fertility rates, future migration rates and flows, and the age-sex structure of the starting populations. But it is difficult to disentangle the component effects and demographic momentum. We adapt a methodology proposed and used by Bongaarts and Bulatao in 1999 (Population and Development Review 25 515-29) by extending to national, subnational and ethnic group projections, applying it to projections of the ethnic group populations in English local authorities. We assess the roles played by immigration assumptions (the subject of continuous public debate), fertility assumptions, mortality assumptions and internal migration assumptions together with the role of the existing population age structure of each group in each area. Our findings are that positive immigration assumptions contribute to population growth in all local authorities, below replacement fertility lowers the population everywhere, declining mortality compensates for missing babies but substitutes elders and internal migration has very different effects depending on the local authority. Ethnic groups vary enormously in terms of the contribution of the current age structure. The demographic momentum of the White groups produces population declines while it is the most important demographic driver for some but not all of minority ethnic groups. The paper reports on the methods, assumptions and results associated with a systematic set of 'what if' projections. These enable us to determine the demographic drivers of future ethnic population change for England's local areas over the time horizon 2001-2051
Demographic analysis · Demographic change · Demographic economics · Economics · Ethnic group · Fertility · Geography · Immigration · Internal migration · Political science · Population · Population growth · Projections of population growth · Sociology · Demography · Global Health Care Issues · Health disparities and outcomes · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
Neighbourhood Ethnic Diversification in Urban and Rural England and Wales
Toward a gender politics of aging
Ravenstein Revisited
Projections of Older European Migrant Populations in Australia, 2016–56
The ageing of Asian migrant populations in Australia
The future growth and spatial shift of Australia's Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population, 2016–2051
New Household Projections for Australia
Inequalities in healthy life expectancy between ethnic groups in England and Wales in 2001
Prevalence of life-limiting conditions in children and young people in England
Are health inequalities between differently deprived areas evident at different ages? A longitudinal study of census records in England and Wales, 1991–2001
Measuring the scales of segregation
Understanding the Spatial Trajectories of Minority Groups
Ethnic Disparities in Neighbourhood Selection
The future of Australia's Indigenous Population, 2011-61
The impacts of international migration on the UK's ethnic populations
Recent developments in population projection methodology
Comparative empirical evaluations of internal migration models in subnational population projections
A local analysis of ethnic group population trends and projections for the UK
Ethnic population projections for the UK, 2001–2051
The Dictionary of Demography
Completing the Demographic Transition
Immigration and Ethnic Change in Low-Fertility Countries
Projections of the Ethnic Minority Populations of the United Kingdom 2006-2056
The estimation of mortality for ethnic groups at local scale within the United Kingdom
Microsimulation methods for population projection
| Unique citing works | 15 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,15 |
| Citation span | 2013 - 2026 (14) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 14 |