Microsimulation methods for population projection
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 2850307 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Wendy Post (0000-0003-2705-3279), Evert Van Imhoff |
| Year | 1998 |
| Volume | 53 |
| Issue | HS1 |
| Pages | 97-136 |
| Publication date | 1998-12-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Population (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0032-4663 • E-ISSN: 1957-7966 |
| Publisher | CAIRN (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.3917/popu.p1998.10n1.0136 |
| PMID | 12157954 |
| OpenAlex | W1755969093 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 39 |
| References cited | 11 |
Van Imhoff (Evert), Post (Wendy). - Méthodes de micro-simulation pour des projections de population La micro-simulation se distingue de la macro-simulation traditionnelle, en utilisant un échantillon plutôt que la population totale, en travaillant au niveau de données individuelles plutôt que de données agrégées, et en se basant sur des expériences aléatoires répétées plutôt que sur des nombres moyens. Nous présentons ici les circonstances sous lesquelles la micro-simulation peut être plus intéressante que des méthodes plus conventionnelles. Elle est particulièrement appropriée si les résultats du processus étudié sont complexes, tandis que les forces qui lui sont sous-jacentes sont simples. Un problème difficile en micro-simulation vient de ce que les projections sont sujettes à des variations aléatoires. Diverses sources d'aléas sont présentées, mais la plus importante est ce que nous appelons l'aléa de spécification : plus on introduit de variables explicatives dans le modèle, plus le degré d'aléa, auquel les sorties du modèle sont sujettes sera important. Après une revue rapide des modèles de micro-simulation qui existent en démographie, plusieurs des caractéristiques essentielles de la micro-simulation sont illustrées avec le modèle KINSIM, pour projeter la taille et la structure des réseaux de parenté futurs
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The evolution of demographic methods
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Reforging the Wedding Ring
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| Unique citing works | 39 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,5 |
| Citation span | 2000 - 2025 (26) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 38 |