Forecasting non-residents' monthly entries to Tunisia and accuracy comparison of time-series methods
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4899475 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Fethi Klabi (0000-0001-5056-5489, University of Monastir, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2014 |
| Volume | 19 |
| Issue | 5 |
| Pages | 770-791 |
| Publication date | 2014-10-20 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Journal of North African Studies (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1362-9387 • E-ISSN: 1743-9345 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/13629387.2014.949694 |
| OpenAlex | W2020757572 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 52 |
The main objective of this article is to model and forecast non-residents' entries to the Tunisian tourist destination (North Africa). Five methods are applied, namely seasonal naïve 1, seasonal naïve 2, Holt–Winters seasonal multiplicative model, SARIMA and SARIMAX, incorporating the effects of political shocks Tunisia went through during the last 10 years. Although no clear-cut conclusions can be drawn and despite seasonal naïve 1 and Holt–Winters satisfactory performances, in-sample and out-of-sample forecast error calculations reveal that the SARIMAX is overall the most accurate method. On this basis, optimistic and pessimistic forecast scenarios are settled and managerial recommendations are proposed with the objective of improving Tunisian tourism policies
Econometrics · Series (stratigraphy · Statistics · Time series · Diverse Aspects of Tourism Research · Forecasting Techniques and Applications · Market Dynamics and Volatility · Mathematics · Geology
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| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,11 |
| Citation span | 2017 - 2017 (1) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |