If a population crashes in prehistory, and there is no paleodemographer there to hear it, does it make a sound

Bibliographic Data

ID5219622
AuthorsRichard R Paine (0000-0001-6996-7402, University of Utah, corresponding author)
Year2000
Volume112
Issue2
Pages181-190
Publication date2000-01-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueAmerican Journal of Physical Anthropology (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0002-9483 • E-ISSN: 1096-8644
PublisherWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1002/(sici)1096-8644(2000)112:2<181::aid-ajpa5>3.0.co;2-9
PMID10813701
OpenAlexW2084278058
LanguageEN
Citations received39
References cited21

Catastrophic episodes (e.g., epidemics, natural disasters) strike with only limited regard for age. A large percentage of catastrophic mortality in a population can lead to a death distribution that resembles the living distribution, which includes greater numbers of older children, adolescents, and young adults than typical mortality profiles. This paper examines both the population implications of a large catastrophic mortality event, based on the Black Death as it ravaged medieval Europe, and its long-term effects on age-at-death distributions. An increased prevalence of epidemic disease is a common feature of reconstructions of the shift to agriculture and the rise of urban centers. The model begins with a hypothetical Medieval living population. This population is stable and characterized by slow growth. It has fertility and mortality rates consistent with a natural-fertility, agrarian population. The effects of catastrophic episodes are simulated by projecting the model population and subjecting it to one large (30% mortality) catastrophic episode as part of a 100-year population projection. A pair of Leslie matrices forms the basis of the projection. The catastrophic episode has important, long-term effects on both the living population and the cumulative distribution of death. The living population fails to recover from plague losses; at the end of the projection, population is still less than 75% its pre-plague level. The age-at-death distribution takes on the juvenile-young adult-heavy profile characteristic of many archaeological samples. The cumulative death profile based on the projection differs from that produced by the stable model significantly (P < 0.05) for 25-50 years after the plague episode, depending on sample size.

Archaeology · Birth rate · Fertility · Geography · Mortality rate · Plague (disease) · Population · Population growth · Population momentum · Population projection · Projections of population growth · Sociology · Demography · Forensic Anthropology and Bioarchaeology Studies · Paleopathology and ancient diseases · Yersinia bacterium, plague, ectoparasites research

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