We Do Not Know the Population of Every Country in the World for the Past Two Thousand Years

Bibliographic Data

ID5753397
AuthorsTimothy W Guinnane (0000-0002-3716-0011, Yale University, corresponding author)
Year2023
Volume83
Issue3
Pages912-938
Publication date2023-09-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueThe Journal of Economic History (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-0507 • E-ISSN: 1471-6372
PublisherCambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1017/s0022050723000293
OpenAlexW3195475345
LanguageEN
Citations received4
References cited19

Economists have reported results based on populations for every country in the world for the past two thousand years. The source, McEvedy and Jones' Atlas of World Population History, includes many estimates that are little more than guesses and that do not reflect research since 1978. McEvedy and Jones often infer population sizes from their view of a particular economy, making their estimates poor proxies for economic growth. Their rounding means their measurement error is not "classical." Some economists augment that error by disaggregating regions in unfounded ways. Econometric results that rest on McEvedy and Jones are unreliable."... we haven't just pulled the figures out of the sky. Well, not often."-McEvedy and Jones (1978, p. 11

Econometrics · Economics · Economy · Geography · Population · Rest (music) · Rounding · Sociology · World population · Computer Science · Culture, Economy, and Development Studies · Demography · Historical Economic and Social Studies · History

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