Failed coups, democratization, and authoritarian entrenchment

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Bibliographic Data

ID6019503
AuthorsJonathan Powell (0000-0002-2546-048X, University of Central Florida, corresponding author), Mwita Chacha (0000-0003-1143-0359, University of Central Florida, corresponding author), Gary Smith (0000-0002-5173-2741, University of Central Florida, corresponding author), Gary E Smith
Year2019
Volume118
Issue471
Pages238-258
Publication date2019-04-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueAfrican Affairs (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0001-9909 • E-ISSN: 1468-2621
PublisherOxford University Press (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1093/afraf/ady050
OpenAlexW2900760019
LanguageEN
Citations received11
References cited13

Long maligned as the largest threat to democratization, recent studies have suggested that military coups can act as important windows of opportunity for democratization in authoritarian regimes. It is argued that even failed coup attempts can roughly double the probability that an authoritarian regime democratizes in the next three years. We revisit these findings by assessing each case of a democratic transition occurring in a failed coup spell in Africa, using the standards of prior work. Our analysis points to a more pessimistic view of the influence of failed coups. Specifically, we find that the nature of these transitions, often being drawn out over several years, and the nature of the data previously utilized to test the association undermine the ability to observe a democratizing effect. Instead of failed coups providing a significant boost to democratization, we find they are more likely to reinforce the country’s previous political trajectory. Failed coups serve incumbents with the dual benefit of both outing their opponents and providing a pretext for their removal, ultimately providing a policy boost for both democrats and autocrats.

Authoritarianism · Democracy · Democratization · Development economics · Economics · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Sociology · Culture, Economy, and Development Studies · Law · Political Conflict and Governance

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