Chancellor Model Picks Merkel in 2013 German Election
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6097356 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Helmut Norpoth (0000-0001-5278-9953, Stony Brook University), Thomas Gschwend (0000-0002-8656-9622, University of Mannheim) |
| Year | 2013 |
| Volume | 46 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 481-482 |
| Publication date | 2013-07-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | PS Political Science & Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1049-0965 • E-ISSN: 1537-5935 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/s1049096513000802 |
| OpenAlex | W2152562004 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 7 |
| References cited | 3 |
In the German national election this fall, based on the forecast of the Chancellor Model, the governing coalition will score a resounding victory. Chancellor Angela Merkel enjoys a high approval rating, which puts her at a 2-1 advantage over the challenger, Peer Steinbrück. Although Germany is not a presidential system, where voters elect the chief policymaker, chancellor support has proved to be a strong predictor of vote choice in German national elections. Our forecast model also includes long-term partisanship, which provides a broad base for the governing parties in this election, and length of tenure, which exacts a modest penalty after two terms of office. Since its premiere in 2002, the model has predicted the winner in each election. In a case of perhaps beginner's luck, the 2002 forecast scored a bull's-eye with 47.1%, the exact share of the governing parties; the forecast was posted three months before Election Day. No poll or other model, not even the Election-Day exit polls, came close to this performance; in fact, most people predicted a defeat for Schröder's red-green coalition (Norpoth and Gschwend 2003
CONTEST · Economic history · Economics · Electoral college · General election · German · Luck · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Presidential election · Presidential system · Primary election · Theology · Victory · Economic Policies and Impacts · European Monetary and Fiscal Policies · German Economic Analysis & Policies · History · Law · Public Administration
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| Unique citing works | 7 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,64 |
| Citation span | 2015 - 2022 (8) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 2 |