Citizen Forecasts of the 2021 German Election
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6098396 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Andreas Erwin Murr (0000-0002-9536-0118, University of Warwick), Michael S Lewis-Beck (0000-0003-0301-5497, University of Iowa) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 55 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 97-101 |
| Publication date | 2022-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | PS Political Science & Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1049-0965 • E-ISSN: 1537-5935 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/s1049096521000925 |
| OpenAlex | W3200846479 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 16 |
There are various scientific approaches to election forecasting: poll aggregation, structural models, electronic markets, and citizen forecasting. With respect to the German case, the first two approaches—polls and models—perhaps have been the most popular. However, relatively little work has been done deploying citizen forecasting (CF), the approach described in this article. In principle, CF differs considerably from other methods and appears, on its face, quite simple. Before an election, citizens are asked in a national survey who they think will win. As the percentage of expectations for party X increases, the likelihood of an X win is judged to be higher. The method has been applied regularly with success in other established democracies, such as the United Kingdom and the United States. \n \n
Advertising · Business · German · Internet privacy · Political science · Computer Science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · History · Mathematics · Policy Transfer and Learning · Public Administration and Political Analysis
Election Forecasting
Accuracy of Vote Expectation Surveys in Forecasting Elections
German Election Forecasting
Vote Expectations Versus Vote Intentions
Citizen Forecasting
Forecasting proportional representation elections from non-representative expectation surveys
The wisdom of crowds
"Wisdom of crowds"? A decentralised election forecasting model that uses citizens' local expectations
What makes people believe that their party won the election
Vote expectations at the next level. Trying to predict vote shares in the 2013 German federal election by polling expectations
Citizen forecasting
The wisdom of crowds design for sensitive survey questions
| Unique citing works | 3 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,75 |
| Citation span | 2022 - 2023 (2) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 3 |