The Bread and Peace Model
2012 Presidential Election Postmortem
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6098968 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Douglas A Hibbs (Palm Beach Research Center, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2013 |
| Volume | 46 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 41-41 |
| Publication date | 2013-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | PS Political Science & Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1049-0965 • E-ISSN: 1537-5935 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/s1049096512001503 |
| OpenAlex | W1992661646 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
President Obama received approximately 51.5% of the two-party vote in the 2012 election. The last Bread and Peace Model forecast of Obama's vote share, based on advance estimates of 2012:quarter 3 personal income posted on October 26, 2012, by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), was 46.6%—lower than the 47.5% forecast appearing in the October issue of PS, which was based on July 27, 2012, BEA data. The Bread and Peace Model therefore underpredicted Obama's vote by 4 to 5 percentage points, equivalent to around 2 model standard errors. The president's vote therefore benefited from a +2-sigma composite shock to Bread and Peace Model fundamentals. Figure 1 shows actual and predicted values for 2012 in perspective of incumbent vote shares at all presidential elections 1952–2012
Contingent vote · Economics · General election · Geography · Group voting ticket · Political science · Politics · Presidential election · Presidential system · Economic Theory and Policy · Law · Medicine · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
| Unique citing works | 2 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,15 |
| Citation span | 2013 - 2014 (2) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 2 |