The Maritime Rung on the Escalation Ladder

Naval Blockades in a US-China Conflict

Bibliographic Data

ID6121517
AuthorsFiona S Cunningham (corresponding author)
Year2020
Volume29
Issue4
Pages730-768
Publication date2020-08-07
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenueSecurity Studies (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0963-6412 • E-ISSN: 1556-1852
PublisherInforma UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/09636412.2020.1811462
OpenAlexW3095886479
LanguageEN
Citations received10

What options do great powers have to end future conflicts over limited political objectives without resorting to nuclear threats? This article examines a naval blockade as an option for militarized coercion that has been largely overlooked in existing scholarship on the conflict escalation ladder for great-power war in the nuclear era. Some US scholars have recommended a naval blockade of Chinese merchant shipping to coerce Beijing in a future war scenario. US leaders might select this blockade option because they believe it poses a lower risk of nuclear escalation than conventional strikes on the Chinese mainland and lower costs than directly engaging Chinese air and naval forces off China’s shores. Neither China nor the United States might be willing to risk nuclear war to achieve their limited political aims in future conflicts over Taiwan, North Korea, or disputed maritime territories. Existing literature has not sufficiently scrutinized the feasibility of a blockade and China’s military plans to respond to it, despite raising doubts about the effectiveness of a blockade to force a change in Chinese behavior. This article argues that an interception-style blockade at the Southeast Asian straits designed to minimize escalation risks is feasible. But the campaign would place severe demands on US naval forces and require extensive support from other countries. Chinese-language materials suggest China could respond militarily to that campaign with intentional escalation using nonnuclear weapons, which may be preferable to inadvertent nuclear use that could result from a US attack on the Chinese mainland

Beijing · Blockade · Business · China · Deterrence theory · Development economics · Economics · Great power · International trade · Mainland China · Nuclear weapon · Political economy · Political science · Politics · European and Russian Geopolitical Military Strategies · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Law · Nuclear Issues and Defense

Tools

Open DOI