A Dual-Source Indicator of Consumer Confidence
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6169864 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Gordon G Bechtel (0000-0002-1460-8151, University of Florida, corresponding author) |
| Year | 1997 |
| Volume | 27 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 299-324 |
| Publication date | 1997-08-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Sociological Methodology (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0081-1750 • E-ISSN: 1467-9531 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publishing (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1111/1467-9531.271029 |
| OpenAlex | W2148490356 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
| References cited | 29 |
The objective of this paper is to improve the U.S. leading confidence indicator by combining its amended version with the Conference Board's equally well known Consumer Expectation Index. The resulting dual-source indicator provides a factorial structure in which survey items are nested. The results presented here show that this structure is not well fit by a generalized linear model. Hence a nonlinear model is invoked which provides differential logistic slopes for the survey items. This latter model is based on the work of McCullagh (1980). The effects estimated in this nonlinear structure provide the United States with a potential leading indicator that is richer and more informative than its current Index of Consumer Expectations. The suggested indicator prevents the mixed signals and inconsistencies that can occur when separately reporting results from our two most prominent sources of consumer perception
Business · Consumer confidence index · Dual (grammatical number · Econometrics · Index (typography · Nonlinear system · Perception · Statistics · Computer Science · Consumer Market Behavior and Pricing · Marketing · Mathematics · Psychology
Generalized Linear Models
Regression and Ordered Categorical Variables
Regression Models for Ordinal Data
Toward a macropsychology
The contribution of E.C. consumer surveys in forecasting consumer expenditures
The contribution of opinion surveys in forecasting aggregate demand in the four main EC countries
The sociotropic aspect of consumer confidence
Endogenizing consumers' expectations in four major EC countries
Statistical Models for Ordinal Variables
A rating formulation for ordered response categories
Theory and methods of scaling
The Consumer as Forecaster
Sociotropic Politics
The Tragedy of the Commons
| Unique citing works | 2 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,09 |
| Citation span | 2003 - 2021 (19) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 2 |