Ignorance Is Bias
The Effect of Latino Losers on Models of Latino Representation
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6229397 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Eric Gonzalez Juenke (0000-0001-5551-2204, Michigan State University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2014 |
| Volume | 58 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 593-603 |
| Publication date | 2014-07-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Journal of Political Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0092-5853 • E-ISSN: 1540-5907 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/ajps.12092 |
| OpenAlex | W1756172943 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 33 |
| References cited | 42 |
Nearly every aggregate study of minority legislative representation has observed outcomes of elections (officeholders), rather than the supply of minority candidates. Because of this, scholars have left a large amount of important data, the election losers, out of their models of minority representation. The evidence presented in this article demonstrates that voters in the United States cannot choose minority officeholders because there are rarely minority candidates on the ballot. I use state legislative candidate data from Carsey et al. () and Klarner et al. () to test models of Latino representation that correct for first‐stage selection bias. Once candidate self‐selection is taken into account, the probability of electing a Latino increases enormously. I then use data from 2010 to make out‐of‐sample predictions, which clearly favor the conditional model. Thus, our current understanding of Latino representation is significantly biased by ignoring the first stage of an election, a candidate's decision to run
Ballot · Econometrics · Economics · Ignorance · Legislature · Majority rule · Political science · Politics · Representation (politics · Selection (genetic algorithm · Selection bias · Statistics · Voting · Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Gender Politics and Representation · Judicial and Constitutional Studies · Law · Mathematics · Psychology · Social Psychology
Ninety-Nine Chambers and the Development of Comparative Legislative Studies
Demand and Supply
From Barrios to Condos
When Social Capital Becomes Political Capital
Stepping up
Demographic dreams, institutional realities
Not the usual story
Women of color candidates
Many are called but few are chosen
Representing the Real Latino Electorate
Immigration and Political Incorporation
Nevertheless, He Persisted
The Race After the Race
An Intersectional Approach to Understanding Representation in State Legislatures
The Last Shall Be Last
District magnitude, Black political empowerment, and candidate emergence
New Americans and the Quest for Political Office
Rising Tides or Political Ripcurrents? Gentrification and Minority Representation in 166 Cities
Racial Change, Racial Threat, and Minority Representation in Cities
One Run Leads to Another
Intersectional Opportunities
Do Local Party Chairs Think Women and Minority Candidates Can Win? Evidence from a Conjoint Experiment
The Wielding Influence of Political Networks
Are Minority and Women Candidates Penalized by Party Politics? Race, Gender, and Access to Party Support
Phenotypic Preference in Mexican Migrants
Electoral Role Models
Do Voters Prefer Just Any Descriptive Representative? The Case of Multiracial Candidates
Latino Opinion and Action in the Struggle for America's Political Future
Evaluating the Minority Candidate Penalty with a Regression Discontinuity Approach
Too Liberal to Win? Race and Voter Perceptions of Candidate Ideology
Here Comes Everybody
Did Women and Candidates of Color Lead or Ride the Democratic Wave in 2018
A Logical Model for Predicting Minority Representation
Southern politics in State and Nation
Strength in Numbers?
The Paradox of Representation
Clarify
Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error
Strategy, Selection, and Candidate Competition in U.S. House and Senate Elections
Quiet Revolution in the South
Minority Representation and the Quest for Voting Equality
Race, Redistricting, and Representation
Black Representation On City Councils
Determinants of Candidate Emergence in U. S. House Elections
The consequences of unobserved heterogeneity in a sequential logit model
Minority Vote Dilution
A Latino on the Ballot
The Not-So-Simple Calculus of Winning
The Political and Demographic Predictors of Candidate Emergence in City Council Elections
The Impact of At-Large Elections on the Representation of Blacks and Hispanics
The Paradox of Representation
The Supply Side of Congressional Redistricting
The Importance of Race and Ethnicity in Congressional Primary Elections
Implicit Attitudes, Explicit Choices
Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data
Has the Voting Rights Act Outlived Its Usefulness? In a Word, “No
When White Voters Evaluate Black Candidates
Structural Choices and Representational Biases
To Run or Not to Run for Office
Entering the Arena? Gender and the Decision to Run for Office
Irreplaceable Legislators? Rethinking Minority Representatives in the New Century
Making the Most of Statistical Analyses
Black Candidates, White Voters
The House as a Stepping Stone to the Senate
The Separation Plot
The Determinants of Candidates' Vote Share and the Advantages of Incumbency in City Council Elections
White Reactions to Black Candidates
Do Majority-Minority Districts Maximize Substantive Black Representation in Congress
Racial Redistricting and African-American Representation
The Election of Blacks to City Councils
Ambition Theory and the Black Politician
| Unique citing works | 33 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 3 |
| Citation span | 2015 - 2026 (12) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 33 |