The Not-So-Simple Calculus of Winning
Potential U.S. House Candidates' Nomination and General Election Prospects
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 7410799 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Walter J Stone (0000-0001-5706-1232, University of California, Davis), L Sandy Maisel (Colby College) |
| Year | 2003 |
| Volume | 65 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 951-977 |
| Publication date | 2003-10-15 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Journal of Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-3816 • E-ISSN: 1468-2508 |
| Publisher | University of Chicago Press (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1111/1468-2508.t01-1-00120 |
| OpenAlex | W2144433848 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 113 |
| References cited | 29 |
As the individual qualities of potential House candidates improve, their prospects in both the nomination and general election go up. The same is not true, however, for two key characteristics of the district context in which potential candidates might run: the party of the potential candidate in relation to the incumbent and the partisan makeup of the district. The direction of the effects of both incumbency and district partisanship on prospects, in contrast to the effects of quality, depends upon the stage of the election process. Using a survey of district informants in a random sample of House districts, we find that incumbent and potential-candidate quality both affect potential candidates' prospects of winning, with “strategic qualities” generally having a stronger direct effect than “personal qualities.” District partisanship has offsetting and strong effects on potential candidates’ chances in both stages: Nomination prospects decline as the partisan makeup of the district favors the potential candidate, while general election chances increase as district partisanship becomes more favorable. An expected parabolic relationship between chances of winning the seat and district partisanship clearly emerges in the analysis. These effects are fundamental to our understanding of the sources of competition in U.S. House elections
Competition (biology · Context (archaeology · Democracy · General election · Geography · Lower house · Nomination · Political science · Politics · Process (computing · Quality (philosophy · Computer Science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Law · Media Influence and Politics
Partisan Models and the Search for Party Effects in the US Senate
Interest Group Theory
The Party Faithful
How Parties Nominate Presidents
The Comparative Advantage of State Interest Organization Research
Theories of Parties
The Road Less Taken
Party Coalitions in the US Congress
Social and Economic Justice Movements and Organizations
Who Sings in the Heavenly Chorus?
Party Nominating Procedures and Recruitment—State and Local Level
Activists, Influence, and Representation in American Elections
Methodological Issues in the Study of Political Parties
Political Parties and Consultants
State Parties Research
The Mobilization and Influence of Business Interests
What a Difference Twenty-Five Years Makes
Interest Groups and Agendas
Interest Groups in American Elections
The State of Research on Political Parties and Interest Groups
The Evolution of National Party Organizations
Lobbying and Influence
Urban Interest Groups
The Evolution and Alteration of American Party Coalitions
The Pure Partisan Institution
Linking Political Parties and Interest Groups
The President, Party Politics, and Constitutional Development
Winning Isn't Everything
Methodological Perspectives on Interest Groups
American Political Parties
Candidates and Voters
Opting Out of Congress
It Takes a Candidate
The Oxford handbook of American political parties and interest groups
Baker, Bus Driver, Babysitter, Candidate? Revealing the Gendered Development of Political Ambition Among Ordinary Americans
Redistricting, Candidate Entry, and the Politics of Nineteenth‐Century U.S. House Elections
Assessing the “Experience Bonus” Through Examining Strategic Entry, Candidate Quality, and Campaign Receipts in U.S. House Elections
When to Risk It? Institutions, Ambitions, and the Decision to Run for the U.S. House
Legislative Effectiveness, Progressive Ambition, and Electoral Success
Demand and Supply
Race, Partisanship, and Democratic Politics
Many are called but few are chosen
The Impact of Prolonged Nomination Contests on Presidential Candidate Evaluations and General Election Vote Choice
Presidential Strategies, Models of Leadership and the Development of Parties in a Candidate-Centred Polity
The Race After the Race
What’s a losing party to do? The calculus of contesting state legislative elections
Running for office again
Who Runs When
Opportunities to govern
Political Parties and the Recruitment of Women to State Legislatures
Constituency Building in Multimember Districts
Reconciling Family Roles with Political Ambition
Information, Activation, and Electoral Competition in the 2002 Congressional Elections
Gaining and Losing Interest in Running for Public Office
Constituency Congruency and Candidate Competition in Primary Elections for the U.S. House
Explaining Major and Third Party Candidate Entry in U.S. Gubernatorial Elections, 1980–2005
The Sense of a Woman
A Comparative Look at Success in Regional Party Politics
What It Takes to Win
Ideology and Gender in U.S. House Elections
National Party Efforts to Recruit State Legislators to Run for the U.S. House
Divisive Primaries and Incumbent General Election Performance
Candidate Valence and Ideological Positions in U.S. House Elections
Uncovering the Origins of the Gender Gap in Political Ambition
Proximity voting in the 2010 U.S. House elections
Voter responses to challenger opportunity costs
Mayors, Accomplishments, and Advancement
Ideological Moderates Won’t Run
How Dispositional Empathy Influences Political Ambition
Term Limits' Multiple Effects on State Legislators' Career Decisions
Bargain Shopping
Endurance at the Top
Running Backwards and in High Heels
The Implications of Apportionment on Quality Candidate Emergence and Electoral Competition
What Are Friends for? The Effect of Geographic Proximity on Primary Turnout in Gubernatorial Elections
Picking Their Spots
The Personal and the Political in Repeat Congressional Candidacies
Leadership Experiences Within Civil Organizations and Candidacy in Public Elections
Stepping Up the Political Ladder
Why Do Experienced Challengers Do Better than Amateurs
The Personality of the Politically Ambitious
The Legislative Party and Candidate Recruitment in the American States
Strategic Challenger Entry in a Federal System
Party, Policy, and the Ambition to Run for Higher Office
Candidates, Campaigns, or Partisan Conditions? Reevaluating Strategic‐Politicians Theory
Unintended Consequences
Why primaries? The party’s tradeoff between policy and valence
When Do War Chests Deter
Confident and cautious candidates
Ambition without democracy
Female Candidates and Legislators
Women Don't Run? Election Aversion and Candidate Entry
Strategic Candidate Entry and Congressional Elections in the Era of Fox News
To Run or Not to Run for Office
Entering the Arena? Gender and the Decision to Run for Office
The House as a Stepping Stone to the Senate
Quality Counts
District Complexity as an Advantage in Congressional Elections
Ignorance Is Bias
Early Money and Strategic Candidate Exit
Congress, keystone of the Washington establishment
Politics, parties, & pressure groups.
Determinants of Candidate Emergence in U. S. House Elections
Does Casework Matter? A Reply to Professor Fiorina
Name Familiarity, Reputation, and the Incumbency Effect in a Congressional Election
Congress, The Electoral Connection
Name Familiarity, Reputation, and the Incumbency Effect in a Congressional Election
Congress
The Impact of Federal Spending on House Election Outcomes
The Deterrent Effect of Incumbency on Recruiting Challengers in U. S. House Elections
Strategic Politicians and the Dynamics of U.S. House Elections, 1946–86
Inspected by #1184063113
Progressive Ambition in the House
Explaining Challenger Quality in Congressional Elections
Competence, Integrity, and the Electoral Success of Congressional Incumbents
The Advantage of Incumbency in Congressional Elections
Politics, Parties, and Pressure Groups
Universalism and the Electoral Connection
Deficits, Democrats, and Distributive Benefits
Some Problems in Studying the Effects of Resource Allocation in Congressional Elections
Risk-Bearing and Progressive Ambition
Estimating Incumbency Advantage without Bias
Explaining Patterns of Candidate Competition in Congressional Elections
Inter-Party Competition and Primary Contesting
Candidates and Parties in Congressional Elections
A Theory of Political Ambition
Baby Books and Ballots
Party and Incumbency in Postwar Senate Elections
| Unique citing works | 113 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 4,52 |
| Citation span | 2001 - 2026 (26) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | Yes |
| Citation types | Neutral: 113 |