Estimating Incumbency Advantage without Bias
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6230192 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Andrew Gelman (0000-0002-6975-2601, Columbia University), Gary King (0000-0002-5327-7631, Harvard University Press) |
| Year | 1990 |
| Volume | 34 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 1142 |
| Publication date | 1990-11-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Journal of Political Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0092-5853 • E-ISSN: 1540-5907 |
| Publisher | JSTOR (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.2307/2111475 |
| OpenAlex | W2149232625 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 269 |
| References cited | 2 |
In this paper we prove theoretically and demonstrate empirically that all existing measures of incumbency advantage in the congressional elections literature are biased or inconsistent. We then provide an unbiased estimator based on a very simple linear regression model. We apply this new method to congressional elections since 1900, providing the first evidence of a positive incumbency advantage in the first half of the century
Econometrics · Economics · Estimator · Linear regression · Simple (philosophy · Simple linear regression · Statistics · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Mathematics
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| Unique citing works | 269 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 7,69 |
| Citation span | 1991 - 2026 (36) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | Yes |
| Citation types | Neutral: 269 |