Make It Rain? Retrospection and the Attentive Electorate in the Context of Natural Disasters

Make It Rain

Bibliographic Data

ID6230055
AuthorsJohn T Gasper, John Gasper (Carnegie Mellon University Qatar), Andrew Reeve (0000-0001-7217-6601), Andrew Reeves (0000-0002-3728-6757)
Year2011
Volume55
Issue2
Pages340-355
Publication date2011-04-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueAmerican Journal of Political Science (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0092-5853 • E-ISSN: 1540-5907
PublisherWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00503.x
OpenAlexW2136733706
LanguageEN
Citations received232
References cited34

Are election outcomes driven by events beyond the control of politicians? Democratic accountability requires that voters make reasonable evaluations of incumbents. Although natural disasters are beyond human control, the response to these events is the responsibility of elected officials. In a county-level analysis of gubernatorial and presidential elections from 1970 to 2006, we examine the effects of weather events and governmental responses. We find that electorates punish presidents and governors for severe weather damage. However, we find that these effects are dwarfed by the response of attentive electorates to the actions of their officials. When the president rejects a request by the governor for federal assistance, the president is punished and the governor is rewarded at the polls. The electorate is able to separate random events from governmental responses and attribute actions based on the defined roles of these two politicians

Archaeology · Context (archaeology · Geography · Meteorology · Natural (archaeology · Natural disaster · Political science · Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis · Disaster Management and Resilience · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · History

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