Pandemics and Elections
Estimating the Net Effect of Pandemic Partisan Retrospection
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12419692 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Neil Hwang (0000-0002-5175-9397, Bronx Community College of the City University of New York, Bronx, NY, USA), Helen Chang (0000-0003-4422-3815, Eugenio María de Hostos Community College of the City University of New York, Bronx, NY, USA), Shirshendu Chatterjee (0000-0002-1344-7624, The City College of New York and The Graduate School and University Center of the City University of New York, New York, NY, USA), Yanming Di (0000-0002-2400-4108, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA), Sharmodeep Bhattacharyya (0000-0001-5011-4119, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 78 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 1123-1137 |
| Publication date | 2025-05-29 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Political Research Quarterly (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1065-9129 • E-ISSN: 1938-274X |
| Publisher | SAGE Publishing (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1177/10659129251346188 |
| OpenAlex | W4410850897 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 38 |
Do voters reward or punish elected officials for pandemics? Recent research on natural disasters finds evidence for partisan retrospection, which maintains that voters’ decisions to reward or punish incumbents following a disaster are influenced by whether or not the elected official is co-partisan. We argue that the COVID-19 pandemic similarly affected voters’ responses to reward or punish incumbents. We contend with increasing COVID-19 infection rates and deaths, voters supported incumbents who were co-partisan and opposed incumbents who were not co-partisan. We look for evidence of pandemic partisan retrospection by estimating the net effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 U.S. presidential and Senate elections. We find that voters were more likely to punish incumbents who were not co-partisan and more likely to reward incumbents who were co-partisan in counties with higher pandemic infection and death rates. Our results support pandemic partisan retrospection and suggest that, in the aggregate, the pandemic had an overall impact on voter choice similar to what occurs after natural disasters
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19 · Economics · Pandemic · Political economy · Political science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Media Influence and Politics · Medicine · Social Media and Politics
Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
Terrorism and electoral accountability
Irrelevant events affect voters' evaluations of government performance
Covid-19 and figures of blame
Natural Disasters, ‘Partisan Retrospection,’ and U.S. Presidential Elections
Democracy for Realists
Anxious Politics
Red State/Blue State Divisions in the 2012 Presidential Election
Vote-by-mail policy and the 2020 presidential election
Did exposure to Covid-19 affect vote choice in the 2020 presidential election
Random Events, Economic Losses, and Retrospective Voting
The Covid-19 pandemic and the 2020 US presidential election
Red states, blue states
The geographical polarization of the American electorate
Depression and Political Participation
Politicians’ Luck of the Draw
Gender Identity as a Political Cue
The Electoral Cost of War
When blame avoidance backfires
Surge and Decline
The Differential Effects of Stress on Voter Turnout
Disasters and Elections
Make It Rain? Retrospection and the Attentive Electorate in the Context of Natural Disasters
Political Polarization along the Rural-Urban Continuum? The Geography of the Presidential Vote, 2000-2016
An Outbreak of Selective Attribution
The Minimal Persuasive Effects of Campaign Contact in General Elections
Flight to Safety
Myopic Voters and Natural Disaster Policy
Democracy and Depression
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |