The Minimal Persuasive Effects of Campaign Contact in General Elections
Evidence from 49 Field Experiments
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4875962 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Joshua L Kalla (0000-0003-3553-3862, University of California, Berkeley), David E Broockman (0000-0002-0993-7073, University of California, Berkeley) |
| Year | 2018 |
| Volume | 112 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 148-166 |
| Publication date | 2018-02-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Political Science Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0003-0554 • E-ISSN: 1537-5943 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/s0003055417000363 |
| OpenAlex | W2758349978 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 179 |
| References cited | 73 |
Significant theories of democratic accountability hinge on how political campaigns affect Americans' candidate choices. We argue that the best estimate of the effects of campaign contact and advertising on Americans' candidates choices in general elections is zero. First, a systematic meta-analysis of 40 field experiments estimates an average effect of zero in general elections. Second, we present nine original field experiments that increase the statistical evidence in the literature about the persuasive effects of personal contact tenfold. These experiments' average effect is also zero. In both existing and our original experiments, persuasive effects only appear to emerge in two rare circumstances. First, when candidates take unusually unpopular positionsandcampaigns invest unusually heavily in identifying persuadable voters. Second, when campaigns contact voters long before election day and measure effects immediately-although this early persuasion decays. These findings contribute to ongoing debates about how political elites influence citizens' judgments
Advertising · Business · Democracy · Field (mathematics · Persuasion · Political advertising · Political science · Politics · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies · Law · Mathematics · Media Influence and Politics · Psychology · Social Psychology
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| Unique citing works | 179 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 19,89 |
| Citation span | 2017 - 2026 (10) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | Yes |
| Citation types | Neutral: 176 |