The Revised Theory of Surge and Decline
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6231031 |
|---|---|
| Authors | James E Campbell (0000-0001-6901-6834, corresponding author) |
| Year | 1987 |
| Volume | 31 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 965 |
| Publication date | 1987-11-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Journal of Political Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0092-5853 • E-ISSN: 1540-5907 |
| Publisher | JSTOR (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.2307/2111231 |
| OpenAlex | W2318315159 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 44 |
| References cited | 17 |
The status of Angus Campbell's theory of surge and decline is a matter of considerable controversy. While analysis of the composition and voting behavior of presidential and midterm electorates fails to support the theory, analysis of aggregate congressional election results yields supporting evidence. This research seeks to reconcile these findings by proposing and examining a revised version of the surge and decline theory. The analysis finds that in presidential elections there is a surge in turnout among partisans of the advantaged party and a surge in support for the advantaged party among independent voters. Both surges are proportional to the magnitude of short-term forces as measured by the partisan division of the presidential vote. In midterm elections, both the one-sided partisan turnout surge and the independent vote surge for the advantaged party recede
Demographic economics · Economics · Geography · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Presidential election · Presidential system · Surge · Turnout · Voter turnout · Voting · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law
Federalism and the Market
An Econometric Evaluation of Competing Explanations for the Midterm Gap
The Republican Wave of 2014
Explaining and Predicting Midterm Congressional Election Outcomes
The Limits of Partisan Gerrymandering
Even the Geeks are Polarized
Salient Ballot Measures and the Millennial Vote
The quiet revolution”
The turnout myth and referendum voting in the United States
Smiles, turnout, candidates, and the winning of district seats
Differential influences on participation in midterm versus presidential elections
Early voting, direct democracy, and voter mobilization
The “Onward March of Party Decomposition” in the American Electorate
Voter response to congressional campaigns
Turnout and presidential coattails in congressional elections
Dynamic estimation of ideal points for the US Congress
Anglo Voting on Nativist Ballot Initiatives
Mobilized by Direct Democracy
The Effects of Turnout on Partisan Outcomes in U.S. Presidential Elections 1960–2000
Balancing in the U.S. States, 1978–2009
Explaining Seat Changes in the U.S. House of Representatives, 1950–98
The Impact of Presidential Campaigning on Midterm U.S. Senate Elections
The Presidential Surge and its Midterm Decline in Congressional Elections, 1868-1988
Sequence and Equilibrium in Congressional Elections
Competition, Party Dollars, and Income Bias in Voter Turnout, 1980–2008
Trends--Americans' Interest and Enthusiasm in Election Campaigns
Core and Peripheral Voters
Congressional Seat Swings
On the Coattails of a Contract
Changing levels of political information in 1988 and 1990
Voice and Balancing in US Congressional Elections
Political Parties in Bulgaria
Federal-level Government Participation and State-level Electoral Performance
Gubernatorial Midterm Slumps
The Super-Predator Effect
Surge and Decline
Overcoming Voting Obstacles
Money and State Legislative Elections
Latinos, Immigration, and the 2006 Midterm Elections
Succession effects in presidential elections
Changing votes or changing voters? How candidates and election context swing voters and mobilize the base
Loss aversion, presidential responsibility, and midterm congressional elections
Coattails and spillover-effects
Coordination and Policy Moderation at Midterm
Elections and the political order
Political Control of the Economy
The People's Choice
Forecasting U. S. House Elections
Explaining Presidential Losses in Midterm Congressional Elections
Economic Conditions, Presidential Popularity, and Voting Behavior in Midterm Congressional Elections
Surge and Decline
The politics of disgruntlement
The Pro-Incumbent Bias in the 1978 and 1980 National Election Studies
Predicting Seat Gains from Presidential Coattails
Perceived Representativess and Voting
Turnout and the Vote
Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections
Presidential Popularity and Negative Voting
Presidential Coattails and Midterm Losses in State Legislative Elections
Surge and Decline in Congressional Elections
| Unique citing works | 44 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,26 |
| Citation span | 1991 - 2024 (34) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 44 |