Candidate Choice and the Dynamics of the Presidential Nominating Process
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6231209 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Larry M Bartels (0009-0006-1260-1593, corresponding author) |
| Year | 1987 |
| Volume | 31 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 1 |
| Publication date | 1987-02-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Journal of Political Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0092-5853 • E-ISSN: 1540-5907 |
| Publisher | JSTOR (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.2307/2111322 |
| OpenAlex | W2318965656 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 73 |
| References cited | 4 |
Data from the NES rolling cross-section survey are used to investigate the dynamics of popular support for Gary Hart during the 1984 primary season. A model is developed that relates preferences for Hart to an interaction between two key explanatory variables: predispositions to oppose Mondale (based on respondents' preexisting social and political characteristics) and perceptions of Hart's chances of winning the nomination (based on objective campaign events and projection). This interactive model accounts for aggregate trends in support for Hart better than an alternative model based directly on Hart and Mondale thermometer scores-in spite of the fact that the interactive model makes no use of any substantive evaluations of Hart! These results are used to address recurring questions regarding the role of momentum in the contemporary presidential nominating process. Some standard interpretations of the way the process works are shown to be inconsistent with the data or superfluous or both
Dynamics (music · Economics · Epistemology · Explanatory model · Key (lock · Nomination · Perception · Political science · Politics · Positive economics · Presidential election · Presidential system · Process (computing · Sociology · Computer Science · Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets · Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics · Law · Philosophy · Psychology · School Choice and Performance · Social Psychology
Does Gender Make a Difference? An Experimental Examination of Sex Stereotypes and Press Patterns in Statewide Campaigns
Political Perception
Inside the Mental Voting Booth
Psychohistory and Political Psychology
Nonverbal Behavior and Leadership
Political Information Processing
The Poly-Psy Relationship
Cognitive Structural Analysis of Political Rhetoric
Affect and Political Judgment
Information and Electoral Attitudes
An Overview of the Field of Political Psychology
The Drunkard’s Search
Decision Making in Presidential Primaries
Symbolic Politics
Persuasion, Partisanship and Evaluations of National Conditions and Governmental Impact
The Psychology of Group Conflict and the Dynamics of Oppression
Following the Crowd
Should Campaigns Respond to Electability Arguments
Sources of Candidate Fundraising Affect Perceptions of Electability
Incumbency and the News Media in U.S. Senate Elections
Off the Fence, Onto the Bandwagon? A Large-Scale Survey Experiment on Effect of Real-Life Poll Outcomes on Subsequent Vote Intentions
Quel parti va Gagner les Elections? Avantages et Faiblesses d'une question numerique [1]
Which candidates do the public discuss online in an election campaign
Strategic voting in the 1984 democratic presidential primaries
Coverage and Campaign Coffers in 2012
Momentum and Media in the 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination
Polls and Elections
The 2012 I owa R epublican C aucus and Its Effects on the Presidential Nomination Contest
Candidate chances, ideological moderation, and American nomination politics
Newspaper Coverage and Gender
Candidate competition and voter learning in the 2000–2012 US presidential primaries
Assessing strategic voting in the 2008 US presidential primaries
Attitude-dependent altruism, turnout and voting
Innocent Bystanders or the Forgotten Actors? The Role of Parties and Candidates in Building Electoral Campaign Momentum
Momentum and Social Learning in Presidential Primaries
The Media
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The Distorted Mirror
Women Candidates in the News
When All's Fair
Homer Gets a Warm Hug
Gender Differences in Campaign Messages
Grabbing attention
The Role of Candidate Spending in Presidential Nomination Campaigns
Viability, Electability, and Candidate Choice in a Presidential Primary Election
Nomination Politics and Ideological Polarization
"The Causal Relationships between Issues, Candidate Evaluations, Party Identification, and Vote Choice--the View From "Rolling Thunder
Candidate Support in Presidential Nomination Campaigns
According to the Polls
Think Twice before Jumping on the Bandwagon
Estimating the persuasive effects of advertising in presidential primary elections
Fund-raising in Presidential Nomination Campaigns
Who Wins Nominations and Why
The Psychology of Political Momentum
Linking Primary Voter Mindsets to General Election Enthusiasm
A Light Bulb Goes On
Forecasts and Preferences in the 1992 General Election
For want of a nail
Concordance and Projection in Citizen Perceptions of Congressional Roll-Call Voting
New Evidence About the Existence of a Bandwagon Effect in the Opinion Formation Process
Opinione Pubblica E Competizione Presidenziale Negli Stati Uniti
Before the Storm
Polls, coalition signals and strategic voting
A Simulation Model of Presidential Nomination Choice
Realizing "strategic" voting in presidential primaries
Partisanship and the dynamics of "candidate centered politics" in American presidential nominations
The rolling cross-section design
Momentum in the polls raises electoral expectations
Voter sincerity and the time-of-voting-decision
Mythic Portraiture in the 1988 Iowa Presidential Caucus Bio-Ads
Expectations and Preferences in British General Elections
Voting Outcomes in the 1984 Democratic Party Primaries and Caucuses
Presidential Prenomination Preferences and Candidate Evaluations
| Unique citing works | 73 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,87 |
| Citation span | 1987 - 2025 (39) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 73 |