Expectations and Preferences in British General Elections
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 3445907 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Richard Nadeau (0009-0005-1392-3538, Université de Montréal), Richard G Niemi (University of Rochester), Timothy Amato (University of Iowa) |
| Year | 1994 |
| Volume | 88 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 371-383 |
| Publication date | 1994-06-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Political Science Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0003-0554 • E-ISSN: 1537-5943 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.2307/2944710 |
| OpenAlex | W2132728399 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 33 |
| References cited | 41 |
We address two questions: How do people form their expectations about the likely winner of the next general election? and What are the links between expectations and votes? Using data collected by the Gallup organization in Great Britain, we find that the expectations formation process (1) has a significant inertia component but also a rapid adjustment to current information; (2) reflects voters' ability to translate economic expectations into political forecasts; and (3) is "time-bounded," possessing special characteristics immediately before and after a general election. The analysis also confirms the existence of a small bandwagon effect, whereby expectations that one party will win inflate that party's vote. The ability of voters to make reasonable forecasts without being unduly influenced by their own preferences suggests that under normal circumstances voters are expressing real preferences and not simply following the crowd
Bandwagon effect · Economics · General election · Political science · Politics · Voting · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Law · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
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| Unique citing works | 33 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,03 |
| Citation span | 1994 - 2024 (31) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 33 |