Guns and Butter and Government Popularity in Britain
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 3359627 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Helmut Norpoth (0000-0001-5278-9953, State University of New York, corresponding author) |
| Year | 1987 |
| Volume | 81 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 949-959 |
| Publication date | 1987-09-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Political Science Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0003-0554 • E-ISSN: 1537-5943 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.2307/1962685 |
| OpenAlex | W2039594281 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 69 |
| References cited | 16 |
Britain under the government of Prime Minister Thatcher provides a unique opportunity to probe the effects of both war and macroeconomic performance on government popularity. Monthly ratings for Thatcher and Conservative-party support (June 1979 to July 1985) are examined by way of Box-Tiao intervention models. The model that best captures the impact of the Falklands War of 1982 is of the gradual-temporary variety: popularity gains accrued through the three-month war shrink in a geometric fashion. Nevertheless, they prove to be worth over five percentage points for the Conservative party a year later, in the 1983 election. Macroeconomic performance, meanwhile, is found to have an asymmetric effect on government popularity, with unemployment strongly significant but inflation not significant at all. Apparently, the British public is punishing failure (on employment) while letting success (on inflation) go unrewarded. Qualifications of the positive effect of war and the negative effect of macroeconomic performance are suggested
Economic interventionism · Economics · Government (linguistics · Inflation (cosmology · Intervention (counseling · Macroeconomics · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Popularity · Prime minister · Spanish Civil War · Unemployment · Variety (cybernetics · World War II · Economic Policies and Impacts · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Law · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact · Psychology
Political Leaders in Westminster Systems
The Economic Vote
Political Choice in Britain
Prediction in Macrosociology
Institutions and Cooperation
Discovering Theory Dynamics by Computer Simulation
War Voting
Scapegoating Strategically
What's Stopping You
The consequences of war
Television News and the `Third Force' in British Politics
The VP-function
Political business cycles and macroeconomic credibility
Gaining on the Swings? The Changing Geography of the Flow-of-the-vote and Government Fortunes in British General Elections, 1979–1992
The Role of Regional Context in Voting
Counter-cyclical Voting in the United Kingdom
Embellishment and Detail? The Changing Relationship between Voting, Class, Attitudes and the Core. Periphery Division of Great Britain 1979-1987
Prime Ministerial Popularity and the Changing Electoral Fortunes of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party
The Political Economy of Attitudes toward Polity and Society in Western European Democracies
Predictably Unpredictable
Prime Ministers, Parties, and the Public
Comparing Mid-term Popularity Functions
Public responses to the presidential use of military force
Internal and External Determinants of Foreign Policy
"Revised Models of the "Rally Phenomenon
The (Un)Importance of Party Leaders
The Dynamics of Presidential Popularity in Post-Communist Russia
Domestic Support and Diversionary External Conflict in Great Britain, 1950- 1992
International Crises and Linkage Politics
Where do hawks and doves fly when shots are fired
Public support for liberal democracy
Good Times, Bad Times, and the Diversionary Use of Force
Partisan Divide on War and the Economy
Patriotism or Opinion Leadership
Domestic Politics, Absolute Deprivation, and the Use of Armed Force in Interstate Territorial Disputes, 1950-1990
War and Elections
Flexible Election Timing and International Conflict
Aftershocks
Party systems and the dynamics of government support
A stable popularity function? Cross-national analysis
Perceptions of macroeconomic performance, government support and Conservative Party strategy in Britain 1983–1987
Its not like that round here
Accountable for what? Regime types, performance, and the fate of outgoing dictators, 1946–2004
The Dynamics of Public Support for Coalition Governments
The Politics of Structural Change
Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes
Modeling Government Popularity in Postwar Britain
When Doves Cry
Economic Evaluations, Prime Ministerial Approval and Governing Party Support
Recapturing the Falklands
British Parties in the Balance
War and the Survival of Political Leaders
Economic voting in Britain, 1857-1914
Estimating the defense spending vote
Economics, politics, and foreigners
Pre-election polling in Britain, 1950-1997
Individual vote choices and constituency economic conditions at the 1992 British General Election
Forecasting political preferences and election outcomes in the UK
Conservative incompetence, Labour responsibility and the feelgood factor
Asymmetric evaluations
Short-term popularity boost following leadership change in Great Britain
The real economy and the perceived economy in popularity functions
Leadership Effects in Parliamentary Elections in Australia and Britain
Expectations and Preferences in British General Elections
An Institutional Explanation of the Democratic Peace
Attention, Asymmetry, and Government Popularity in Britain
Stability and Centrality of Legislative Choice in the Spatial Context
What Does Conflict Theory Predict about America's Future
Rituals of Solidarity and Security in the Wake of Terrorist Attack
Time series analysis
Sociological methodology, 1969
Intervention Analysis with Applications to Economic and Environmental Problems
Political Change in Britain
Explaining Presidential Popularity
Voter Response to Short-Run Economic Conditions
Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896–1964
On the Demand for Economic Outcomes
Political Economy
Government Popularity in Great Britain under Conditions of Economic Decline
The Electoral Cycle and the Asymmetry of Government and Opposition Popularity
Economics, politics, and the cycle of presidential popularity
Macroeconomic performance and government popularity in Britain
Politics, economics and party popularity in Britain, 1979-83
Presidential Popularity and Negative Voting
| Unique citing works | 69 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,77 |
| Citation span | 1987 - 2021 (35) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 69 |