Is There More Violence in the Middle
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6231376 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Zachary M Jones (0000-0001-6423-957X, University of Washington), Yonatan Lupu (0000-0002-1735-7511, George Washington University) |
| Year | 2018 |
| Volume | 62 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 652-667 |
| Publication date | 2018-07-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Journal of Political Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0092-5853 • E-ISSN: 1540-5907 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/ajps.12373 |
| OpenAlex | W2806358274 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 30 |
| References cited | 44 |
Is there more violence in the middle? Over 100 studies have analyzed whether violent outcomes such as civil war, terrorism, and repression are more common in regimes that are neither full autocracies nor full democracies, yet findings are inconclusive. While this hypothesis is ultimately about functional form, existing work uses models in which a particular functional form is assumed. Existing work also uses arbitrary operationalizations of “the middle.” This article aims to resolve the empirical uncertainty about this relationship by using a research design that overcomes the limitations of existing work. We use a random forest‐like ensemble of multivariate regression and classification trees to predict multiple forms of conflict. Our results indicate the specific conditions under which there is or is not more violence in the middle. We find the most consistent support for the hypothesis with respect to minor civil conflict and no support with respect to repression
Autocracy · Civil Conflict · Democracy · Econometrics · Economics · Empirical research · Multivariate statistics · Political science · Politics · Spanish Civil War · Statistics · Terrorism · Work (physics · Engineering · Law · Mathematics · Political Conflict and Governance · Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East · Psychology · Social Psychology · Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence
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Economic development and revolutions. A cross-national investigation
Understanding and Preventing Torture
The effects of economic development on democratic institutions and repression in non-democratic regimes
Examining the effects of democratic backsliding on human rights conditions
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Forecasting conflict in Africa with automated machine learning systems
Institutional Change as a Response to Unrealized Threats
Democracy and conflict
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Nationalism and torture
Revolution and Democracy in the Twenty-First Century
Capturing the Fourth Estate
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The Challenger’s Winning Coalition
Estimating latent traits from expert surveys
An Empirical Evaluation of Explanations for Political System Support
Which Institutions Matter? Re-Considering the Democratic Civil Peace
[W]hat Lies Beneath
Shaking Hands with the Internal Enemy
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The MID4 dataset, 2002–2010
Democratic Compromise
Cross-National Variation in Political Violence
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Democratic Competition and Terrorist Activity
Democracy and the Concept of Personal Integrity Rights
Changing Lanes or Stuck in the Middle
Understanding Interaction Models
Comparing Random Forest with Logistic Regression for Predicting Class-Imbalanced Civil War Onset Data
The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War
Aiding and Abetting
Expanded Trade and GDP Data
Does Democracy Matter
Protest, Deterrence, and Escalation
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Introducing the UCDP Non-State Conflict Dataset
Armed Conflict 1946-2001
One-Sided Violence Against Civilians in War
International System and Technologies of Rebellion
Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816-1992
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| Unique citing works | 30 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 3,75 |
| Citation span | 2018 - 2026 (9) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 30 |