Can Close Election Regression Discontinuity Designs Identify Effects of Winning Politician Characteristics
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6232190 |
|---|---|
| Authors | John Marshall (0000-0001-9576-1475, Columbia University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 68 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 494-510 |
| Publication date | 2024-04-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Journal of Political Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0092-5853 • E-ISSN: 1540-5907 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/ajps.12741 |
| OpenAlex | W4296050001 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 38 |
| References cited | 32 |
Politician characteristic regression discontinuity (PCRD) designs leveraging close elections are widely used to isolate effects of an elected politician characteristic on downstream outcomes. Unlike standard regression discontinuity designs, treatment is defined by a predetermined characteristic that could affect a politician's victory margin. I prove that, by conditioning on politicians who win close elections, PCRD estimators identify the effect of the specific characteristic of interest and all compensating differentials—candidate‐level characteristics that ensure elections remain close between candidates who differ in the characteristic of interest. Avoiding this asymptotic bias generally requires assuming either that the characteristic of interest does not affect candidate vote shares or that no compensating differential affects the outcome. Because theories of voting behavior suggest that neither strong assumption usually holds, I further analyze the implications for interpreting continuity tests and consider if and how covariate adjustment, bounding, and recharacterizing treatment can mitigate the posttreatment bias afflicting PCRD designs
Affect (linguistics · Bounding overwatch · Covariate · Discontinuity (linguistics · Econometrics · Economics · Estimator · Margin (machine learning · Mathematical analysis · Mathematical economics · Outcome (game theory · Political science · Politics · Regression · Regression discontinuity design · Statistics · Victory · Voting · Advanced Causal Inference Techniques · Computer Science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Gender Politics and Representation · Law · Mathematics · Psychology · Social Psychology
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| Unique citing works | 38 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 12,67 |
| Citation span | 2023 - 2026 (4) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 34 |