On prediction in political science
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6258014 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Keith Dowding (0000-0001-6888-9369, Australian National University Australia, corresponding author), Charles Miller (0000-0001-6484-8906, Australian National University Australia) |
| Year | 2019 |
| Volume | 58 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 1001-1018 |
| Publication date | 2019-08-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | European Journal of Political Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0304-4130 • E-ISSN: 1475-6765 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/1475-6765.12319 |
| OpenAlex | W2911404504 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 17 |
| References cited | 41 |
This article discusses recent moves in political science that emphasise predicting future events rather than theoretically explaining past ones or understanding empirical generalisations. Two types of prediction are defined: pragmatic, and scientific. The main aim of political science is explanation, which requires scientific prediction. Scientific prediction does not necessarily entail pragmatic prediction nor does it necessarily refer to the future, though both are desiderata for political science. Pragmatic prediction is not necessarily explanatory, and emphasising pragmatic prediction will lead to disappointment, as it will not always help in understanding how to intervene to change future outcomes, and policy makers are likely to be disappointed by its time‐scale
Disappointment · Economics · Epistemology · Political science · Politics · Positive economics · Scale (ratio · Sociology · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Philosophy · Political Science Research and Education · Psychology · Qualitative Comparative Analysis Research · Social Psychology
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| Unique citing works | 17 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2,83 |
| Citation span | 2020 - 2025 (6) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 17 |