Voters' wrath? Policy change and government popularity
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6263845 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Christoph Arndt (0000-0001-9296-2319, University of Reading, corresponding author), Carsten Jensen (0000-0002-4346-031X, Aarhus University), Georg Wenzelburger (0000-0001-6195-7664, University of Kaiserslautern) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Volume | 34 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 147-169 |
| Publication date | 2021-01-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Governance (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0952-1895 • E-ISSN: 1468-0491 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/gove.12483 |
| OpenAlex | W3004422577 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 7 |
| References cited | 27 |
Recent research suggests that voters are bad at responding in a meaningful way to policy events when deciding for whom to vote. Voters rely on so‐called “blind retrospection”, punishing governments for events outside politicians' control. However, another core aspect of the blind retrospection perspective has not been put to the test: are voters unable to respond to policy decisions that clearly are under the politicians' control? We construct a unique large‐N dataset on legislative changes in German old age pensions and unemployment protection to see if cutbacks and expansions lead to lower/higher support for the government. Our data are exceptionally fine‐grained and allow us to track the policy‐vote link for 416 months from 1977 to 2013 with a total of 329,167 respondents. We find substantial support for the notion that voters react in a meaningful way to policy changes, but also that they can be distracted by high‐profile, extreme events
Construct (python library · Control (management · Core (optical fiber · Economics · German · Government (linguistics · Legislature · Macroeconomics · Perspective (graphical · Political economy · Political science · Popularity · Public economics · Unemployment · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · History · Law · Policy Transfer and Learning
Service decline and policymaker support for coproduction
Welfare state reforms and mass media attention
Partisan Influence on Policy Preferences in Retrenching the Welfare State
Issue salience and feedback effects
The electoral consequences of welfare state changes
The mass media, welfare state reforms, and electoral punishment
In the Eye of the Storm
What Americans know about politics and why it matters
The Economic Vote
Irrelevant events affect voters' evaluations of government performance
Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice
The Political Business Cycle
A Social Insurance State Withers Away. Welfare State Reforms in Germany – Or
Rich Democracies, Poor People
Democracy for Realists
Policy instruments and welfare state reform
Making the difference in social Europe
Do voters demand responsive governments? Evidence from Indian disaster relief
Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy
The Political Relevance of Irrelevant Events
Do Shark Attacks Influence Presidential Elections? Reassessing a Prominent Finding on Voter Competence
Clarity of responsibility
The Material Consequences of Welfare States
Political Knowledge, Political Engagement, and Civic Education
How Lasting Is Voter Gratitude? An Analysis of the Short‐ and Long‐Term Electoral Returns to Beneficial Policy
Learning about Voter Rationality
Perceptions of Partisan Ideologies
Make It Rain? Retrospection and the Attentive Electorate in the Context of Natural Disasters
Substituting the End for the Whole
Economics and elections
Myopic Voters and Natural Disaster Policy
Sources of Bias in Retrospective Decision Making
| Citations per year | 1.4 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2021 - 2026 (6) |
| Highly cited | No |