Armed Conflicts With Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State

The Role of Repression and State Capacity

Bibliographic Data

ID6283383
AuthorsDino Krause (0000-0003-4274-9127, Danish Institute for International Studies, corresponding author)
Year2024
Volume68
Issue2-3
Pages456-483
Publication date2024-03-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/00220027231176237
OpenAlexW4377224998
LanguageEN
Citations received2
References cited66

What explains the emergence of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State as parties in civil wars? This study provides the first large-N analysis of this question, studying a sample of states in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, 2003–2020, contributing to ongoing debates among peace and conflict scholars about jihadist rebels in civil war. Theoretically, it is argued that higher levels of state repression and states’ military capabilities should impact the preferences of local groups and increase the likelihood of a ‘transnationalization’. On the other hand, it is hypothesized that increases in bureaucratic state capacity should reduce the risk of such transnationalization. A series of penalized logistic regressions yield support for the hypotheses regarding state repression and bureaucratic capacity, but not military state capacity. The findings point towards the importance of bureaucratic capacity building as well as the potentially adverse consequences of excessively repressive counterterrorism strategies

Al qaeda · Bureaucracy · Civil Conflict · Civil society · Geography · Islam · Middle East · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Psychological repression · Sociology · Spanish Civil War · State (computer science · Terrorism · Law · Political Conflict and Governance · Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East · Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence

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