Coercion and Provocation
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6284075 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Allan Dafoe (0000-0003-0377-205X, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, United Kingdom), Sophia Hatz (0000-0003-1595-2269, Uppsala University), Baobao Zhang (0000-0001-7217-5035, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, United Kingdom, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Volume | 65 |
| Issue | 2-3 |
| Pages | 372-402 |
| Publication date | 2021-02-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022002720957078 |
| OpenAlex | W3091461410 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 18 |
| References cited | 60 |
Threats and force, by increasing expected costs, should reduce the target’s resolve. However, they often seem to increase resolve. We label this phenomenon provocation. We review instances of apparent provocation in interstate relations and offer a theory based on the logic of reputation and honor. We also consider alternative explanations: confounding or mis-imputation of resolve; revelation of information, character, or capabilities; or generalized sunk cost reasoning. Using survey experiments, we systematically evaluate whether provocation exists and what may account for it. We employ design-based causal inference techniques—a hypothetical natural experiment, a placebo treatment, and ruling out mediators—to evaluate our key hypotheses. We find strong evidence of provocation and suggestive evidence that it arises from considerations of honor, vengeance, and reputation. Our experimental design minimizes the risk that this result arises from our alternative explanations
Economics · Honor · Imputation (statistics · Inference · Internet privacy · Leverage (statistics · Obligation · Political science · Positive economics · Provocation test · Reputation · Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science · Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies · Law · Medicine · Political Conflict and Governance · Psychology · Social and Intergroup Psychology · Social Psychology
Tools of the weak? Economic sanctions, threat perception, and conflict escalation
Leader Statements and the Effect of Accommodative and Coercive Language in Interstate Conflict
A game theory model of terrorist mobilization
Contextualizing Individual Attitudes on Economic Statecraft
Muddied waters
Does plausible deniability work? Assessing the effectiveness of unclaimed coercive acts in the Ukraine war
How Low Can You Go? The Effects of Low Credibility False Flag Incidents on International and Domestic Approval for Interstate Wars 1
Blame Games in Cyberspace
A new formal model analysis of deterrent to brinkmanship and the causes of the armament dilemma
Denying the Obvious
When Do Imposed Sanctions Work? The Role of Target Regime Type
Provocation, Bargaining, and War
Provocation, Public Opinion, and International Disputes
Public Opinion and Crisis Behavior in a Nuclearized South Asia
Do Threats or Shaming Increase Public Support for Policy Concessions? Alliance Coercion and Burden-Sharing in Nato
Why Costly Rivalry Disputes Persist
Endogenous preferences, credible signaling, and the security dilemma
The Psychology of Coercion Failure
On the Origins of War
From Colony To Superpower
In the Shadow of Power
War and Democratic Constraint
Controlling the Sword
Paying the Human Costs of War
Military Threats
Amazon's Mechanical Turk
Social Conflict
Honor, Symbols, and War
A Cultural Theory of International Relations
The Osama bin Laden I Know
The Logic of Violence in Civil War
Who are these people?” Evaluating the demographic characteristics and political preferences of MTurk survey respondents
Militarized Compellent Threats, 1918–2001
A Quiet Success for Arms Control
The Strategies of Terrorism
The Madman Nuclear Alert
What Terrorists Really Want
Provoking a civil war
Six Days of War
Culture of honor
Democracy, Accountability, and Representation
Generalizing from Survey Experiments Conducted on Mechanical Turk
Fair is Fair
Bear Any Burden? How Democracies Minimize the Costs of War
Foreign Policy at the Ballot Box
Evaluating Online Labor Markets for Experimental Research
Information Equivalence in Survey Experiments
Shaping Public Opinion
War, Casualties, and Public Opinion
Deterrence or Escalation
Echoes of Vietnam
A Preference for War
Rally 'Round the Union Jack? Public Opinion and the Use of Force in the United Kingdom, 1948-2001
Provocation and the Strategy of Terrorist and Guerrilla Attacks
Public Opinion and Decisions About Military Force in Democracies
Revisiting Reputation
Rationalist explanations for war
The Might of the Pen
Reputation and Status as Motives for War
The Propaganda of the Deed
Fixing the Meaning of 9/11
We will not Swallow This Bitter Fruit
On Provocation
War and the Survival of Political Leaders
Efficient Secrecy
War and Revenge
The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism
The Multiple Effects of Casualties on Public Support for War
The Origins of the Pacific War
Diplomatic Calculus in Anarchy
Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes
Bloodtaking and Peacemaking
| Unique citing works | 18 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 3,6 |
| Citation span | 2021 - 2026 (6) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 18 |