How Civil Wars End
A Rational Choice Approach
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6284361 |
|---|---|
| Authors | T David Mason (0000-0003-2953-624X), Patrick J Fett (University of Memphis) |
| Year | 1996 |
| Volume | 40 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 546-568 |
| Publication date | 1996-12-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022002796040004002 |
| OpenAlex | W2317953442 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 157 |
| References cited | 14 |
What conditions determine whether a civil war ends in a negotiated settlement or a military victory? The authors address this question by developing an expected utility model of the choice between seeking an immediate settlement or continuing to fight in anticipation of eventual victory. The model implies that the likelihood of a settlement varies with estimates of the probability of winning, the time required to win, the rate at which the costs of conflict accrue, and the payoffs for victory versus settlement. Logistic regression results suggest that a settlement becomes less likely the larger the government's army and more likely the longer the civil war lasts. Payoff and cost variables had no effect on the likelihood of a settlement
Economics · Government (linguistics · Logistic regression · Microeconomics · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Settlement (finance · Spanish Civil War · Statistics · Stochastic game · Victory · Defense, Military, and Policy Studies · Finance · Law · Law, Economics, and Judicial Systems · Mathematics · Politics, Economics, and Education Policy
Civil Wars
Environmental Ethics of War
Stalemate as the lesser evil
India–China and Their War-making Capacities
Don’t we have a right to get angry? Integrating emotions into international mediation studies
A New Local Turn for Track One Peace Process Research
The Wartime Origins of Democratization
Guerrilla Veterans in Post-war Zimbabwe
Power Sharing and Democracy in Post-Civil War States
Successful Negotiation in International Violent Conflict
Inequality, Grievances, and Civil War
Why they fight
Intervention in ethnic and ideological civil wars
Oil governance in Nigeria’s Niger Delta
Natural resources and the dynamics of civil war duration and outcome
Who Wins, Who Loses, Who Negotiates Peace in Civil Wars
The Impact of Commercial Military Actors on Armed Conflict Termination, 1990–2010
Predicting the duration of the Syrian insurgency
The surprising decline of international mediation in armed conflicts
Interstate Rivalries and Expansions in Military Capacity
Responding to Child Soldiering
When Will We Part with Partition Theory? Flawed Premises and Improbable Longevity of the Theory of Ethnic Partition
Examining ethnic violence and partition in Bosnia-Herzegovina
Ethnic Autonomy as a Dual-Use Technology
Does Third-Party Enforcement or Domestic Institutions Promote Enduring Peace After Civil Wars? Policy Lessons From an Empirical Test
Conflict settlement and identity in territorial claims
When Civil Wars Recur
The Impact of International Tribunals and Domestic Trials on Peace and Human Rights After Civil War
Crisis Early Warning and Decision Support
Inside and Out
Peasants, Choice, and Civil Wars
Legitimation capacity
Exploiting dissent
Non-state armed actors and contested sovereignties in internationalized civil wars
To Prosecute or Not to Prosecute
The Importance of Being Earnest (in Mediation)
Not All Ceasefires Are Created Equal
Introducing an Agenda-based Measurement of Mediation Success
Creating an analytical framework for United Nations disarmament in civil wars
Conditions for Successful Multiparty Mediation in Separatist Armed Conflicts
The International Criminal Court and the Rebels’ Commitment Problem
Early returns
Security in deeply divided societies
Partnering to Make Peace
Sectoral Realism at the Junction of the Partition Plan of Palestine
U.S. Military Interventions and the Risk of Civil Conflict
The Status of Likelihood Claims in International Relations and Peace Science
The spatial contagion of international mediation
The conditional impact of military intervention on internal armed conflict outcomes
Teaching from experience
Where Do States Go? Strategy in Civil War Intervention
Failing to succeed? The cumulative impact of international mediation revisited
Secession, legitimacy and the use of child soldiers
Win, lose, or draw in the fog of civil war
Turning Weakness into Strength
Changing horses in midstream
Oil and Civil Conflict
From Tremors to Talks
Qui bono? Foreign military, economic, diplomatic interventions, and the termination of civil wars
International Relations Theory and How Civil Wars End
Incentives for Talking
Strategic rebels
Educational Access and Peace Duration in Post-Conflict Countries
International Mediation and Social Networks
Agents of peace or enablers of violence? The proximal effects of mediators in international disputes
Settling Softly
Sustaining the Peace
Mediating Civil War Settlements and the Duration of Peace
Trial fairness before impact
Partitioning to Peace
How do wars end? A strategic perspective
Does Withdrawal of Troops After Military Intervention Reduce Rebel Groups
Civil Wars and Party Systems
Democracy Out of Anarchy
Third‐Party State Domestic Politics and Conflict Management During Interventions into Civil Conflicts
Forecasting Peace Agreement Content
Could rebel child soldiers prolong civil wars
Rebel commitment to peace processes
Ethnic Conflict in Sri Lanka
A shared common sense
Stabilizing the Peace After Civil War
Insurgent-Population Ties and the Variation in the Trajectory of Peripheral Civil Wars
Inclusive institutions and stability of transition toward democracy in post-civil war states
Partition as a Solution to Ethnic War
What Is Civil War
Killing Time
The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement
The Art of the Possible
Terrorism, Spoiling, and the Resolution of Civil Wars
Barriers to Coordination? Examining the Impact of Culture on International Mediation Occurrence and Effectiveness
Win, Lose, or Draw
Transnational Ethnic Kin and Civil War Outcomes
The Impact of Group Norms and Generalization of Risks across Groups on Judgments of War Behavior
Referendums as a political party gamble
Mutually Assured Distrust
Who Brings Which Peace
Battle Diffusion Matters
The Impact of Trade on International Mediation
Oil Wealth, Winning Coalitions, and Duration of Civil Wars
Cheap Signals with Costly Consequences
Enforcing Restraint
Minorities at risk
Negotiating Peace
Peacemaking in Civil War
World military and social expenditures
The carrot and the stick
Insurgency, counterinsurgency, and the rational peasant
Controlling and Ending Conflict
Ethnic Conflict in World Politics
How a War Ends
The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945-1993
| Unique citing works | 157 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 5,23 |
| Citation span | 1996 - 2026 (31) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | Yes |
| Citation types | Neutral: 156 |