Skip to main content

ETHNOS_APP

Home • Search • Journals • List 0

Battle Diffusion Matters

Examining the Impact of Microdynamics of Fighting on Conflict Termination

Bibliographic Data

ID6285853
AuthorsGaku Ito (0000-0002-5362-6918, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University, Higashihiroshima, Japan, corresponding author), Kaisa Hinkkainen Elliott (0000-0002-7552-0882, University of York)
Year2020
Volume64
Issue5
Pages871-902
Publication date2020-05-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022002719885428
OpenAlexW2990058771
LanguageEN
Citations received7
References cited65

How does diffusion of civil war battles influence conflict termination? Recent advances in civil war literature have found that battle dynamics shape conflict termination by affecting the intra-conflict bargaining between disputants. This article extends the theoretical perspective and argues that how battles diffuse matters in determining conflict termination. While battlefield dynamics should in principle reveal previously unavailable private information, the relevance of information-revealing effect depends on the diffusion patterns of battles. The persistent, and possibly battle-exacerbated, commitment problem can also alter the prospects of conflict termination. We test the argument by distinguishing two distinct diffusion patterns of battles: distant and proximate. The empirical results reveal that distant diffusion, but not proximate diffusion, of battles makes civil conflicts less likely to terminate. The analysis also demonstrates that incorporating diffusion dynamics significantly improves our ability to predict conflict termination

Argument (complex analysis · Battle · Battlefield · Diffusion · Economics · Law and economics · Perspective (graphical · Political economy · Political science · Positive economics · Relevance (law · Sociology · Spanish Civil War · Computer Science · Culture, Economy, and Development Studies · Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies · History · Law · Political Conflict and Governance · Psychology · Social Psychology

  • Uncertainty in grid data

    Open Access•Akisato Suzuki•Quality & Quantity•2023

  • The micro-dynamics of peace and conflict

    Open Access•Roddy Brett, Roger Mac Ginty et al.•Security Dialogue•2024

  • Beyond body counts

    Open Access•Gregory L Smith•Conflict Management and Peace…•2025

  • The micro-dynamics of conflict and peace

    Santiago Sosa•International Interactions•2023

  • Forecasting Peace Agreement Content

    Open Access•Meri Dankenbring, Constantin Ruhe•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2026

  • Conflict shapes in flux

    Open Access•Annette Idler, Katerina Tkacova•International Political Science…•2024

  • On-Side fighting in civil war

    Open Access•Jonah Schulhofer-Wohl•Rationality and Society•2020

  • A Complicated War

    William Finnegan•Complicated War•1992

  • The Causes of War

    Open Access•Geoffrey Blainey•The Causes of War•1988

  • How Wars End

    Dan Reiter•How Wars End•2009

  • The modifiable areal unit problem and implications for landscape ecology

    Open Access•Dennis E Jelinski, Jianguo Wu•Landscape Ecology•1996

  • War and local collective action in Sierra Leone

    Open Access•John Bellows, John Miguel Bellows et al.•Journal of Public Economics•2009

  • Rectangular and hexagonal grids used for observation, experiment and simulation in ecology

    Open Access•Colin P D Birch, Colin Birch et al.•Ecological Modelling•2007

  • Scaling regression inputs by dividing by two standard deviations

    Open Access•Andrew Gelman•Statistics in Medicine•2008

  • Revolution in the Revolution? Armed Struggle and Political Struggle in Latin America

    Holmes Alexander, Regis Debray et al.•Hispanic American Historical Review•1968

  • The timing of peace initiatives

    I William Zartman•Global Review of Ethnopolitics•2001

  • Microfoundations in international relations

    Open Access•Joshua D Kertzer•Conflict Management and Peace…•2016

  • Non-state actors in civil wars

    Open Access•David E Cunningham, David Cunningham et al.•Conflict Management and Peace…•2013

  • Fighting over Oil

    Open Access•Päivi Lujala, Jan Ketil Rød et al.•Conflict Management and Peace…•2007

  • Introducing SpatialGridBuilder

    Open Access•Steve Pickering•Conflict Management and Peace…•2015

  • Win, lose, or draw in the fog of civil war

    Open Access•J Michael Greig, T David Mason et al.•Conflict Management and Peace…•2016

  • The Geography of the International System

    Open Access•Nils B Weidmann, Doreen Kuse et al.•International Interactions•2010

  • How the Weak Win Wars

    Ivan Arreguín-Toft•International Security•2001

  • Selection on Observed and Unobserved Variables

    Joseph G Altonji, Todd E Elder et al.•Journal of Political Economy•2005

  • Taking Time Seriously

    Niels Beck, Nathaniel Beck et al.•American Journal of Political…•1998

  • Committing to Peace

    Open Access•Barbara F Walter•Committing to Peace•2021

  • Ethnicity, the State, and the Duration of Civil War

    Open Access•Julian Wucherpfennig, Nils W Metternich et al.•World Politics•2012

  • Back to the Future

    Open Access•D Bruce Carter, David B Carter et al.•Political Analysis•2010

  • Expanded Trade and GDP Data

    Kristian Skrede Gleditsch•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2002

  • Does Warfare Matter? Severity, Duration, and Outcomes of Civil Wars

    Open Access•Laia Bacell I Ventura, Laia Balcells et al.•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2014

  • How Civil Wars End

    Open Access•T David Mason, Patrick J Fett•Journal of Conflict Resolution•1996

  • Geography, Rebel Capability, and the Duration of Civil Conflict

    Open Access•Halvard Buhaug, Scott Gate et al.•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2009

  • Bargaining and the Nature of War

    Open Access•Alastair Smith, Allan C Stam et al.•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2004

  • Settling It on the Field

    Open Access•Kristopher W Ramsay, Kristopher Ramsay•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2008

  • Rebels at the Gates

    Open Access•J Michael Greig•International Studies Quarterly•2014

  • Roving Bandits? The Geographical Evolution of African Armed Conflicts

    Open Access•Kyle Beardsley, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch et al.•International Studies Quarterly•2015

  • Throwing Out the Baby with the Bath Water

    Open Access•Niels Beck, Nathaniel Beck et al.•International Organization•2001

  • Do Terrorists Win? Rebels' Use of Terrorism and Civil War Outcomes

    Open Access•Virginia Page Fortna•International Organization•2015

  • Learning from the Battlefield

    Open Access•Alex Weisiger•International Organization•2016

  • Rationalist explanations for war

    Open Access•James D Fearon•International Organization•1995

  • The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement

    Open Access•Barbara F Walter•International Organization•1997

  • War as a Commitment Problem

    Robert Powell•International Organization•2006

  • Bargaining Failures and Civil War

    Barbara F Walter•Annual Review of Political Science•2009

  • The Armed Peace

    Open Access•Bahar Leventoğlu, Branislav L Slantchev•American Journal of Political…•2007

  • Bargaining and Learning While Fighting

    Open Access•Robert Powell•American Journal of Political…•2004

  • Bargaining and War

    R Harrison Wagner•American Journal of Political…•2000

  • Making the Most of Statistical Analyses

    Gary King, Michael Tomz et al.•American Journal of Political…•2000

  • Rewarding Bad Behavior

    Open Access•J‐l Thomas, Jakana Thomas•American Journal of Political…•2014

  • Persistent Fighting and Shifting Power

    Open Access•Robert Powell•American Journal of Political…•2012

  • Too Much of a Bad Thing? Civilian Victimization and Bargaining in Civil War

    Open Access•Reed M Wood, Jacob D Kathman•British Journal of Political…•2014

  • Roads and the diffusion of insurgent violence

    Open Access•Yuri M Zhukov•Political Geography•2012

  • Diffusion patterns of violence in civil wars

    Open Access•Sebastian Schutte, Nils B Weidmann•Political Geography•2011

  • Armed conflicts, 1946-2014

    Open Access•Tove Pettersson, Therése Pettersson et al.•Journal of Peace Research•2015

  • Introducing the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset

    Open Access•Ralph Sundberg, Erik Melander•Journal of Peace Research•2013

  • The Geography of Civil War

    Open Access•Halvard Buhaug, Scott Gate et al.•Journal of Peace Research•2002

  • The spoils of nature

    Open Access•Päivi Lujala•Journal of Peace Research•2010

  • The Diffusion of Violence in the North Caucasus of Russia, 1999-2010

    Open Access•John O''Loughlin, John Ο’loughlin et al.•Environment and Planning A…•2012

  • Predicting local violence

    Open Access•Robert A Blair, Christopher Blattman et al.•Journal of Peace Research•2017

  • Can civilian attitudes predict insurgent violence? Ideology and insurgent tactical choice in civil war

    Open Access•Kentaro Hirose, Katsushi Imai et al.•Journal of Peace Research•2017

  • On the Duration of Civil War

    Open Access•Paul Collier, Anke Hoeffler et al.•Journal of Peace Research•2004

  • How and when armed conflicts end

    Open Access•Joakim Kreutz•Journal of Peace Research•2010

  • Armed Conflict 1946-2001

    Open Access•Nils Petter Gleditsch, Peter Wallensteen et al.•Journal of Peace Research•2002

  • The perils of policy by p-value

    Open Access•Michael D Ward, Brian D Greenhill et al.•Journal of Peace Research•2010

  • Anticipating mediated talks

    Open Access•Constantin Ruhe•Journal of Peace Research•2015

  • Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer than Others

    Open Access•James D Fearon•Journal of Peace Research•2004

  • The Principle of Convergence in Wartime Negotiations

    Open Access•Branislav L Slantchev•American Political Science Review•2003

  • The Power to Hurt

    Branislav L Slantchev•American Political Science Review•2003

Unique citing works7
Citations per year1,17
Citation span2020 - 2026 (7)
Citation velocitycurrent
Highly citedNo
Citation typesNeutral: 7

Tools

Open DOISci-Hub
Ethnos_APP • Open Source Project • MIT License • Frontend v2.0.0 • Privacy and Cookies • API Documentation: api.ethnos.app/docs • API Source Code: GitHub • DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17049435 • Frontend Source Code: GitHub • DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17050053 • cruz.rio.br • Expectantes Misericordiae