A Generalized Aggregation-Disintegration Model for the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Attacks
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6284883 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Aaron Clauset (0000-0002-3529-8746, Santa Fe Institute, NM, corresponding author), Frederik W Wiegel (University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands) |
| Year | 2010 |
| Volume | 54 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 179-197 |
| Publication date | 2010-02-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022002709352452 |
| OpenAlex | W2160075231 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 7 |
| References cited | 28 |
The authors present and analyze a model of the frequency of severe terrorist attacks, which generalizes the recently proposed model of Johnson et al. This model, which is based on the notion of self-organized criticality and which describes how terrorist cells might aggregate and disintegrate over time, predicts that the distribution of attack severities should follow a power-law form with an exponent of α = 5/2. This prediction is in good agreement with current empirical estimates for terrorist attacks worldwide, which give α = 2.4 ± 0.2 and which the authors show is independent of certain details of the model. The authors close by discussing the utility of this model for understanding terrorism and the behavior of terrorist organizations and mention several productive ways it could be extended mathematically or tested empirically
Aggregate (composite · Computer security · Criticality · Distribution (mathematics · Econometrics · Economics · Exponent · Mathematical analysis · Physics · Political science · Power (physics · Power law · Self-organized criticality · Statistical physics · Statistics · Terrorism · Computer Science · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Law · Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models · Mathematics · Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence
On a Class of Skew Distribution Functions
A Brief History of Generative Models for Power Law and Lognormal Distributions
Power laws, Pareto distributions and Zipf's law
Self-organized criticality
Power-Law Distributions in Empirical Data
Understanding Terror Networks
Cours d'économie politique
Bombers and Bystanders in Suicide Attacks in Israel, 2000 to 2003
Modeling Uncertainty in Adversary Behavior
Behind the Curve
Cours d'Economie Politique
The strategic calculus of terrorism
Harsh State Repression as a Cause of Suicide Bombing
The Nature of the Beast
On the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Events
Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening
Does Democracy Promote or Reduce Transnational Terrorist Incidents
Explaining the Severity of Civil Wars
Sabotaging the Peace
Modeling the Size of Wars
The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism
The Changing Nature of Suicide Attacks
Strikes as Forest Fires
| Unique citing works | 7 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,47 |
| Citation span | 2011 - 2026 (16) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 7 |