Do Failed or Weak States Favor Resident Terrorist Groups’ Survival

Bibliographic Data

ID6285050
AuthorsKhusrav Gaibulloev (0000-0002-9014-9532, American University of Sharjah), James A Piazza (0000-0002-6557-0894, Department of Political Science, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA), Tod Sandler (0000-0001-9077-5915, School of Economic, Political & Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX, USA, corresponding author)
Year2024
Volume68
Issue5
Pages823-848
Publication date2024-05-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/00220027231183939
OpenAlexW4380624353
LanguageEN
Citations received5
References cited48

Employing two alternative measures of state failure, we investigate how state weakness influences resident terrorist groups’ survival. Theoretically, state failure favors resident terrorist groups’ survival, while state territorial control fosters resident groups’ termination until some control threshold. Empirically, we uncover a robust negative relationship between a country’s weakness and its control of terrorism through the lens of the resident terrorist groups’ survival prospects. The discovered relationship withstands a host of robustness tests – e.g., alternative estimates and samples. We apply an instrument designed to address endogeneity concerns. In particular, our novel instrument for failed states consists of the interaction between natural disasters and ethnic fractionalization. As a state’s percentage of territorial control increases, resident terrorist groups are more prone to ending until some threshold control percent. Our analysis can guide counterterrorism policy by exploiting the nuanced theoretical determinants identified here that foster resident groups’ termination in failing states

Biology · Control (management · Criminology · Demographic economics · Development economics · Econometrics · Economics · Endogeneity · Ethnic group · Fractionalization · Political economy · Political science · Robustness (evolution · State (computer science · Terrorism · Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance · Law · Political Conflict and Governance · Psychology · Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence

Tools

Open DOIOpen Access