On the Likely Magnitude, Extent, and Duration of an Iraq-UN War
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6285340 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Claudio Cioffi-Revilla (University of Colorado Boulder), Claudio Cioffi‐revilla (University of Colorado Boulder, corresponding author) |
| Year | 1991 |
| Volume | 35 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 387-411 |
| Publication date | 1991-09-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022002791035003001 |
| OpenAlex | W3124739124 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 14 |
| References cited | 11 |
Results from this study conducted in November 1990 at the Long-Range Analysis of War Project, University of Colorado, predict that the magnitude μ of a war between Iraq and the United Nations collective security coalition will be between 5 (hundred thousand combatant fatalities) and 6- (low million). War magnitude is defined as the common logarithm of total combatant fatalities. This falsifiable forecast (“an event 5 ≤μ≤ 6- will occur”) was derived using mathematical models for fatalities, extent, and duration, estimated on historical populations of Correlates of War Project data on interstate wars involving great powers. The forecast will be wrong if and only if 5 > μ > 6-. However, failure is scientifically unlikely in this case, because the models are parsimonious, they show strong empirical fit, and extensive tests prove that they are largely insensitive to historical evolution - unlike Lanchester-type models
Combatant · Development economics · Duration (music · Econometrics · Economics · Falsifiability · Magnitude (astronomy · Political science · Spanish Civil War · Statistics · Defense, Military, and Policy Studies · Economic Sanctions and International Relations · Law · Mathematics · Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence
Can We Predict Politics? Toward What End
Predicting the Length of the 2003 U.S.-Iraq War
Attitudes toward the conduct of war
Guns and lightning
Time Present and Time Past
Democracy and war
The evolution of war
Response to Moul's Comments on “The Likely Magnitude, Extent, and Duration of an Iraq-UN War”
Predicting the Severity of Great Power War from Its Extent
Anti-terrorism policies and the risk of provoking
The Decision to Attack Iraq
On the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Events
Perfect Storms
Influences on the Duration of Wars, Strikes, Riots, and Family Arguments
| Unique citing works | 14 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,42 |
| Citation span | 1993 - 2022 (30) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 14 |